On October 31, 1996, the Jerusalem Post reported: “Nine days ago a senior Syrian official threatened to go to war if Israel refuses to withdraw from the Golan Heights. On Tuesday, Syria’s Foreign Minister Farouk Shara said that charges Syria was preparing a surprise attack were baseless. At the same time, government-backed Syrian newspapers have this week accused Israel of preparing for war, and warned Syria will respond accordingly.”
War, rumors of war and threats of war abound in the Middle East. And although it would be a mistake to exaggerate the volume of the drums of war at this moment, Israel is taking very seriously a renewed Syrian threat for two reasons. First, Syria has built up a substantial arsenal of weapons over the last few years, thus making a military threat real. Second, in recent months, the Syrian government has been masterfully playing the propaganda game (commonly referred to as the “Blame Game”) in which Israel has been blamed for the aggression, rather than Syria.
Syrian arsenal
A recent report in the military periodical The Jane Report indicates, “Syria has carried out a reorganization of its surface-to-surface missile units since 1982. At the end of 1988, the Syrians had more than 36 launching systems for SS-21 missiles, 24 launchers for FROG 7, 18 Launchers for SCUD-B and launchers for the SS18 and SSC-3 missiles which are designed for coastal defense.” Needless to say, launching systems are not complete without warheads. Although the Syrian government is not yet capable of producing nuclear warheads, it has invested heavily in both conventional and non-conventional warheads capable of mass destruction. These are capable of delivering chemical and biological weapons, as well as conventional explosives.
According to The Jane Report, “Syria possesses the most advanced plans for the manufacturing of chemical weaponry in the Arab world. Since the Lebanon-Israeli War, Syria sees the development of chemical warfare as a means of reaching an equality with the might of the Israel Defense Force. The assembling is done in three locations across the country. In 1985, Syria began the “serious” manufacturing of chemical warheads. This includes nerve gas for use with Scud B and C missiles.
Other improvements Syria has made to its arsenal include:
- Improvements in the Soviet ZAB shells so they can be armed with chemical material.
- Improvements in the PTAB-500 cluster bomb so it can carry a chemical warhead.
- Obtaining chemical artillery shells and, apparently, SCUD and FROG missiles with chemical warheads.
The “Blame Game”
If Syria is to attack Israel, she wants the blame to fall squarely on Israel. Seeking this end, Syria has been quietly provoking Israel through deployment of troops and propaganda. The Jerusalem Post reports, October 31, 1996, that Syria, as well as the Palestinians, have taken three steps in the continued “Blame Game” escalation process. “First, Syria succeeded in taking a provocative step — moving special forces from Beirut to near Israel’s base on Mount Hermon — and blaming it on Israel. Second, Arafat succeeded in inciting, if not ordering, his own police to shoot Israelis — and having the entire world and half of Israel blame Benyamin Netanyahu. Third, the speculation regarding a ‘limited’ Syrian attack against Israel has not led to massive diplomatic pressure against Syria; instead, it has led to explanations this is the understandable result of Israel’s refusal to accept the previous government’s hints that the Golan was available for the asking.
“If anything was to tempt Syria toward war, it is the assessment that no matter how flimsy the excuse or how disproportionate the Syrian response, Israel will be blamed for Syrian aggression against Israel. The converse is also true: If Assad believes the world will blame and punish Syria for aggression against Israel, then his strategic calculation would shift decisively against taking such a risk.”
On the Israeli front, Israel is correctly working to remove any excuse the Syrians might have for going to war and raise the military price of any aggression. In this vein, Defense Minister Yitzhak Mordechai was right to tell the Foreign Affairs and Defense committee that a clear majority of the cabinet is open to some territorial compromise on the Golan, but that Israel was preparing for any eventuality.
From the world’s standpoint, peace in the Middle East has always been a game, albeit a very high stakes game. As one nation jockeys for a better position on the political front, the surrounding nations strengthen their resolve to resist. As the Jerusalem Post comments, “Over the years, Syria has failed to show any eagerness for exchanging a full peace for full withdrawal from the Golan. It is hard to see why Syria would see going to war as a less risky way to regain the Golan than making peace. Despite Syria’s massive numerical superiority on the Golan front, the strategic balance does not favor Syria. If it attacks Israel, it risks losing military assets that will not be easily replaced, given the collapse of the Soviet Union and Syria’s financial situation.”
Interestingly, scripture is silent as to Syria’s involvement in Israel during the latter days. We can speculate this may be because Israel conquers Syria or the two nations work out a peace accord. At this point, it can only be noted how Syria has positioned itself attempting to gain the upper hand in its relations with Israel.
The Origin of the Organic World – Part One