Signs of the Times – Part unknown

Soviet Union Seeks Middle East Peace Initiative

The course of history is often affected by seemingly insignificant events. The uproar that resulted from British author Salman Rushdie’s book “The Satanic Verses” seems out of all proportion to the importance of such a work of fiction.

Much speculation has appeared in the news media as to why a book that would normally be read by only a few people should have created such a furor. Some cynical commentators have suggested that the author, a former Moslem, included the controversial material for publicity purposes to help the sale of the book and got more than he bargained for.

Others have seen the escalation of threats as an opportunistic move by Iranian fundamentalists to regain leadership in the Islamic world after the disastrous eight-year war with Iraq. The threats of violence against the author and the breaking of diplomatic ties with most of Europe have served to further the radicals’ goal of isolating Iran from the West. American and British attempts of the past few years to improve relations with the Iranian moderates have been diverted for the present. Significantly, the Soviet Union has apparently stepped into the vacuum: “Persia (Iran), Ethiopia, and Libya with them (the Russian forces)” (Ezk. 38:5).

During his previously scheduled visit to Tehran, Soviet foreign minister Shevardnadze was granted a rare audience with the Ayatollah Ruhol­lah Khomeini. At the 90-minute meeting, the Ayatollah is said to have asked for closer ties with the Soviets whom he had previously condemned for their atheistic ideology. The Soviet minister’s tour included meetings with other middle east leaders whom he urged to move ahead with stalled peace negotiations. Shevardnadze offered full diplomatic recognition to Israel if it were to accept peace talks under United Nations sponsorship, an offer which the Israeli government is not likely to accept.

National Service Legislation Proposed

A plan has been introduced in Congress that would encourage young Americans to devote a year or two to military or social service in return for student aid and other federal benefits. The plan, officially called the Citizenship and National Service Act of 1989, is sponsored by Democrats in the Senate, but Republican support will be needed if the plan is to be enacted. President George Bush is said to favor a smaller scale program of this type.

Proponents see the act as providing low-cost volunteers for the mili­tary as well as many needed civilian projects. Eventually, almost all federal education aid, job training and housing allowances would be linked to service in the Citizens Corp for those able to serve. Although proposed as a voluntary program, the link to federal aid would make the program virtually mandatory for some segments of the population. In fact, some critics feel the program would have to be mandatory to benefit those for whom it is designed.

Social “Earthquake” Triggered by Austerity

Although Venezuela, with its massive oil deposits, is considered the richest nation in South America, it went bankrupt several months ago and suspended payments on its $33 billion foreign debt. As a condition of debt relief from the International Monetary Fund, the recently elected government of President Carlos Andres Perez imposed austerity measures allowing steep increases in gasoline prices and transit fares (both of which were cheap by world standards).

The suddenness of the arbitrary increases triggered an angry reaction that Perez called a “social explosion.” Mobs took to the streets, looting stores and methodically carting off the merchandise. Although the riots started spontaneously, activist leaders soon took advantage of the situation. When martial law finally brought control, over 300 were dead and 1500 injured.

Although the debt crisis may be the proximate cause of the trouble, the seeds of the nation’s problems were sown in the 1970’s. Windfall oil profits were squandered before it was apparent that they could not continue indefinitely. Venezuela, like Mexico, Nigeria and many other oil rich nations with burgeoning populations, has found their suddenly acquired wealth to be more of a curse than a blessing. The words of the spirit are again confirmed: “Put not your trust in princes nor in the son of man, in whom there is no help” (Psa. 146:3).

Afghan Capital Prepares for Siege

Although Soviet troops have left Afghanistan, the country’s troubles are far from over. As this is written, Kabul, the capital city, is reported to be in a state of siege. The Soviet installed government of President Najibulah controls only the capital which is surrounded by some 25,000 Mujahedin rebels. The rebels are preparing to attack from the outside and are confident of support from within the city from rebel sympathizers in the army and throughout the community.

Reports from the city of Kabul say the residents fear what will happen when the city does fall because of the lack of unified leadership among the rebels. If this continues, it is feared that a power struggle may turn the city into a battleground like Beirut, Lebanon. Another nation thus adds to the conditions that fulfill the prophecy that there shall be a time of trouble such as never was.

New Gallstone Treatment Reported

A new method of treating certain types of gallstones has been developed. If it proves to be as effective as experiments indicate, the need for traditional gallbladder surgery could be cut in half. Gallbladder surgery cases number about 500,000 a year, making them the second most common form of abdominal surgery next to Cesarean section.

In the treatment described in the New England Journal of Medicine, a chemical solvent related to ether is applied through a tube inserted through the abdominal wall and the liver into the gallbladder. With the new method, a patient can return to work in a few days rather than the six weeks required for conventional surgery. On every hand, knowledge increases at a rapid pace fulfilling the words of Daniel 12:4.

Genetic Revolution Creates Ethi­cal Dilemmas

The increase in knowledge predicted by Daniel seems to be taking place to an extent exceeding anything that could have been imagined just a few years ago. Recent advances in the field of molecular biology and genetics are seen as heralding a new age in medical science. For example, reduced cost of computer capacity has made feasible the mapping of the entire human DNA genome. DNA is the part of every cell which carries the coding of a person’s genetic makeup.

By genetic analysis, it has become possible to tell a person’s genetic predisposition to certain diseases. Already some 400 genetic “markers” have been located, indicating the genes responsible for such diseases as muscular dystrophy, Huntington’s disease, some psychiatric disorders and a variety of cancers.

Although this knowledge opens up possibilities for a range of diagnostic and therapeutic benefits, the information can also be used to an individual’s detriment. If a person’s genes show he has the potential for developing a disease later in life, a potential employer could use the information to decide against hiring the person. The employer could claim the job candidate with a potential health condition might later become a burden on the health insurance system of the company.

Insurance companies now normally require physical examinations of applicants for life insurance and exclude from coverage individuals with potentially life-shortening conditions. In the near future, genetic analysis may be used to identify high-risk individuals that present diagnostic methods are incapable of revealing.

Courts and legislatures are today beginning to grapple with the ethical and legal implications of the new technology. Questions of privacy rights will need to be addressed. The question of what limitations should be placed on the use by others of an individual’s genetic information is just beginning to receive attention. As is often the case in the modern world, the proper use of a technology may be a more difficult problem to solve than its initial development.

Bush Shows Caution On Mideast Peace Plan

In the closing days of the presidency of Ronald Reagan, a number of diplomatic decisions were made that the new Bush administration appears to be approaching with caution. Among these is the decision to open a dialog with the PLO after Yasser Arafat clarified his statements concerning Israel’s right to exist. The new administration does not appear to be rushing into the new connection with the PLO. U.S. – PLO relations are being allowed to develop through a process of cautious testing before accepting the organization as a full partner in the peace process. Israel, always critical of the recognition of Arafat, is welcoming the hiatus as an opportunity to develop a strategy to deal with the new realities. Although no terrorist attacks of Israel have occurred since Arafat’s statement, the PLO still uses terror tactics to maintain control over Palestinians in the occupied territories.

Recent statements by PLO officials have been quoted by Israeli spokesmen to prove that the PLO has not given up the objective of taking over all of Palestine. However, they have adopted a strategy of doing it in phases rather than all at once. Israel, meanwhile, is expected to issue a plan that will advocate talks with the Palestinians but not the PLO; they also want to get Jordan and possibly Egypt back into the negotiations.

At his confirmation hearings, James Baker, the new U.S. Secretary of State, said that the U.S. commitment to Israel’s survival and security “is going to remain unshakeable.” He told the committee that the Arabs must come to accept the fact that peace must be made with Israel and not with the United States.

He confirmed that the Bush administration will generally continue the Middle East policies of the Reagan administration but will “feel free to supplement and modify those policies as the circumstances might require.” He also said that the new administration would support an international conference provided that it was properly structured and would lead to direct Arab-Israel negotiations. He further said that the Bush administration would continue to oppose the creation of a Palestinian state.

Israel Administration Concerned for Earthquake Safety

Following the recent catastrophic earthquake in Armenia, a quiet reassessment is being made of the adequacy of Israel’s preparations to cope with the effects of a large-scale earthquake. Discussions have been held in various forums with a minimum of publicity to avoid undue public concern. The defense minister has been called upon to prepare a comprehensive damage control plan which would coordinate government ministries and agencies with the local councils.

Experts are urging stricter enforcement of earthquake safety standards in building construction. Despite legislation of stricter standards several years ago, many builders are thought to be disregarding the laws which are inadequately enforced. Safety experts are calling for a survey of all buildings with priority being given to public institutions such as hospitals and schools. The area extending from the Beit Shean valley to the north of Lake Kinneret (Sea of Galilee) is considered most vulnerable due to geologic factors.

Records show that major earthquakes occur in Israel on an average of two or three per century. In 1837, a quake destroyed the old city of Safed with 5,000 casualties. In 1927, one was centered north of Jericho killing 350 people and destroying 800 buildings. With today’s much denser population, experts fear that an earthquake could be catastrophic for Israel if building construction is not up to par.

Terrorists with chemical weapons a frightening prospect

Next to nuclear bombs, poison gas in its several forms is probably the most feared weapon in the world today. Revulsion to the effects of its use in World War I led to its being outlawed by the Geneva Protocol of 1925. Its manufacture or possession, however, has never been prohibited under international law.

In World War II, it was never used because both sides had poison gas and were prepared to defend against its use. Recently, however, Iraq has used it against the Kurd’s and the Iranians with devastating effect. Because it is relatively inexpensive to produce and is made from easily obtainable materials, the poorer na­tions of the world are seeing the advantages of acquiring this weapon rather than going for relatively expensive nuclear weapons.

Of latest concern is a huge plant nearing completion in Libya. Given Libya’s record of aggression and involvement in terrorist activities, the existence of this plant is considered a threat to any nation Libya sees as its enemy such as Israel, Chad or even the less radical Arab states.

The United States views the opening of this plant as a serious threat and has dispatched an additional 13-ship carrier battle group to join the 6th fleet in the Mediterranean. Military action against the facility has been left as an open option by the U.S. government.

As this is written, a 140-nation conference is meeting in Paris to consider giving the U.N. power to investigate allegations of the use of chemical weapons anywhere in the world. The U.S. is expected to call for a new treaty banning production, stockpiling and transfer of these weapons. Informed observers, however, see such a ban unverifiable due to the ease with which a legitimate plant can be converted to produce the lethal chemicals.

As he takes office, President George Bush will face difficult decisions as to how to handle what he has reportedly called “the single greatest emerging military danger for the world.”

Gas masks distributed in Israel

The Civil Defense command in Israel is conducting an experiment to see whether the general population takes the threat of chemical warfare seriously enough to properly maintain their own protection equipment at home.

Several years ago, when the Arab countries were known to have facilities to make poison gas and Iraq was known to be using it in the Iran-Iraq war, Israel distributed gas masks to the public in the most vulnerable locations. Later, they found the equipment had either been allowed to deteriorate or had been used for other purposes, such as protection while spraying insecticides, so that it would be worthless for the purpose intended.

Although protective kits are available for every person in Israel, they are stored in central locations under optimal conditions. Recently there has been a demand for the kits to be distributed to the public. As an ex­periment, Civil Defense personnel in two border settlements gave out the equipment and demonstrated its care and use. During the next year Civil Defense inspection officers will go to homes to check the condition of the equipment and at the end of the year it will be called in for servicing.

Since Iraq has demonstrated its lack of scruples in using chemical weapons in defiance of international law, the Israelis see themselves as particularly vulnerable now that the war with Iran is over and Iraq can once again devote attention to Israel which gave aid to their enemy in that war.

Arafat threatens Palestinian peacemakers

By renouncing terrorism and recognizing Israel’s right to exist, Yas­ser Arafat got the United States to agree to talk to the Palestinian Liberation Organization. Shortly thereafter, Arafat reportedly made death threats against Palestinian Arabs who advocate an end to the uprising in the Israeli occupied west bank and Gaza.

U.S. Secretary of State George Shultz was sharply critical of the threats but agreed to “observe behavior” as the talks proceed. Many leaders who collaborated with Israel have been assassinated in the past. In Bethlehem, graffiti threatening death to the city’s Palestinian mayor has appeared but has been painted over by Israeli soldiers.

Uprisings costly to Israel

Israel has had its worst economic year since the financial crisis of 1982. The cost of putting down the Palestinian uprising in the occupied territory was a severe drain on the economy, causing unemployment and inflation to rise sharply in the later months of the year.

As the new coalition government took office, the cabinet, in a special session, passed an austerity budget designed to curb inflation and pare down government bureaucracy. Even the military was to be cut back, but the amount of the cutback was left in doubt because of the continuing unrest in the territories.

If the budget remains in its present form, it could mean the laying off of thousands of government workers and cut-backs in government subsidies for consumer goods. The question many are asking is whether the labor federation (Histadrut) will accept the level of austerity necessary to pull the nation from the brink of bankruptcy.

Smoking no longer a sign of sophistication

Researchers at the National Center for Disease Control in Atlanta reported recently that in the 25 years since the government first warned of the health dangers of tobacco, smoking has declined in the United States. When considered on the basis of educational level, however, the decline is shown to have occurred five times faster among the better educated than among the less educated. Smoking has long been pictured by the advertising world as a symbol of high class and sophistication; but according to this study, it may, in fact, get to be generally regarded, as many have thought all along, as a dirty, unhealthy habit that should be avoided.

Shroud Test Results Reported

Tests on the shroud of Turin have found it to be very old but not old enough to have been the authentic burial cloth of Jesus. Although all of the tests planned for the shroud have not yet been completed, radioactive carbon dating experiments performed independently by three laboratories show the material for the shroud to have been made between 1260 and 1390 A.D.

The shroud came to light in 1356 when the French nobleman Geofrey de Charny claimed it to be the long lost relic. The bishop of Troyes promptly declared it a fake, painted by a local artist; but the public, after the fashion of the times, preferred to believe de Charny’s story and so the cult of the shroud became established.

Several years ago an expert in the authentication of art objects made a thorough examination of the stains under a microscope and declared them to be a gelatin-based tempera painted on the linen in a manner common in the 14th century. His conclusions were ignored at the time but have now been partially confirmed by the recent test results. Further testing is now being done to try to determine the origin of the shroud material and the nature of the markings.

Despite the precautions taken to make the validity of the tests beyond dispute, the authenticity of the shroud still has its defenders. They question the validity of the tests and point out the many questions that remain unanswered concerning the unique characteristics of the image that the stains produced. Considering the emotionalism with which the shroud is regarded, controversy over test results is apt to persist as long as human judgement is involved in interpreting the complex array of facts.

Israel’s Religious Parties Wield Clout After Election

None of the 28 political parties running in the recent elections in Israel got a majority of the vote, but the Likud party may be able to form a government by getting the small conservative religious parties to join in a coalition. Both major parties have courted the religious parties, but the Likud is the only one likely to be willing to compromise enough on the religious issues to be attractive to these parties.

The demands of the religious leaders include principally legislation to define who is a Jew under Israeli law and legislation to affirm the Sabbath. They want the law to recognize only conversions to Judaism by the Orthodox branch. Excluded from Israeli citizenship would be conversions by the Reform and Conservative branches. Also demanded is Sabbath legislation that would shut down buses and taxis, close theaters, restaurants and businesses, and prohibit all sports events from sundown Friday to sundown Saturday.

Although these parties are interested chiefly in religious issues, some would go along with Likud’s hard line on dealing with the occupied territories, but some would not rule out territorial concessions entirely. Under a government of these parties, the proposals for an international conference to consider the Palestinian question favored by the Labor party would most likely be rejected. A joint administration between Likud and Labor such as has prevailed for the last four years would only be considered as a last resort.

Kremlin Relaxes Policy on Jewish Affairs

Soviet authorities have agreed to permit more freedoms for the 1.8 million Jews in the Soviet Union. They will now be allowed to participate in activities of the World Jewish Congress, an organization that represents Jewish groups from 70 countries with combined Jewish populations of over 11 million.

The teaching of the Hebrew language, once a punishable crime, will now be permitted also. The changes are part of an effort by President Mikhail Gorbachev to eliminate human rights issues that have hampered relations with the West in recent years.

Afghan War Not Over Yet

After a series of dramatic military operations by Afghan guerrillas backed by Pakistan and the United States against the Soviet backed government forces, the Soviet Union has deployed about 30 advanced ground attack planes and a number of Scud surface to surface missiles. The planes and missiles are capable of attacking targets inside Pakistan, the source of supply for the rebels. The weapons were paraded in the Afghan capital and were declared to be the most advanced in the Soviet arsenal. The Soviets say the deployment is a response to counter Pakistani arms being supplied to the anti-communist Islamic guerrillas. The U.S. responded to the escalation by reaffirming support for Pakistan and protesting the Soviet action.

Soviet Naval Base in Syria Expanded

When Egyptian President Anwar Sadat abrogated the Soviet-Egyptian friendship treaty in 1976, many of the functions performed at the Soviet base at Alexandria were transferred to the Syrian port of Tartus, north of Lebanon. Syrian President Hafez al­Assad also permitted the Soviet land-based naval-air arm to use Syrian air fields for their surveillance and antisubmarine operations in the eastern Mediterranean.

During the past year, the Soviet Union has been expanding these facilities even though in other parts of the world Soviet forces are being reduced for economic reasons. The bases in Syria have been used to counter the presence of the U.S. sixth fleet and NATO forces in the Mediterranean with attack submarines. Some analysts relate the expansion of the bases to the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) agreement which bans land-based intermediate range ballistic and cruise missiles but does not ban sea-based systems. The Sixth Fleet’s missile and aircraft capability therefore becomes more important for the defense of Europe as the treaty is implemented. Coming at a time when the U.S. is facing uncertainty concerning the extension of leases on military bases in southern Europe, Israeli analysts see these developments as enhancing the strategic importance of Israel to the U.S. as an ally in the eastern Mediterranean.