Signs of the Times – Part unknown

Mideast Facing Most Dangerous Crisis in 20 Years

After breaking off the peace dialogue with PLO leader Yasser Arafat, a top U.S. official acknowledged that “this is the most dangerous time in the Mideast in 20 years.” He was referring to the gradual drift toward war as both sides adopt increasingly extreme positions. Arafat, who last year renounced terrorism in order to begin the peace talks, refused to disavow the unsuccessful May 30 speedboat attack on Israeli beaches. Arafat seemed unable or unwilling to discipline Abul Abbas, the dissident leader of the raid whose previous terrorist activities include the hijacking of the Achille Lauro cruiseship.

Inside Israel, the new right-wing government of Yitzhak Shamir seems prepared to take a tougher approach to the two-and-a-half-year-old intifada which may be escalating from stone throwing to the use of guns and bombs. Israel’s heavily armed neighbors, Syria, Iraq, and Jordan are’ fine tuned for conflict,” as one analyst put it. They outnumber Israel 10 to 1 in manpower and have chemical weapons and possibly nuclear capabilities along with missiles to deliver these weapons.

In the past, it has been to Israel’s advantage that Iraq and Syria have been mortal enemies. Although their antagonism is likely to continue, it is now largely a personal rivalry between their leaders, Saddam Hussein and Hafez Assad. The relationship of the two countries could change overnight if the leadership should change. Jordan and Iraq have for years been drawing closer and integrating their armed forces. With the Amman government near bankruptcy, Iraq is helping to pay for Jordan’s air force. Analysts foresee a significant Israeli reaction if Iraq installs missiles on Jordanian territory, making all Israel vulnerable.

Public sentiment in Israel is growing more hostile toward the Arab population as the intifada continues and population pressures caused by the influx of Soviet Jews create a housing crisis. The settlement of the immigrants in the occupied territories has become a major point of confrontation with the Palestinians and can be expected to be the catalyst for major acts of terrorism if it persists.

Gorbachev Promises Results in Two Years

Although Mikhail Gorbachev will remain as general secretary of the communist party, he came under severe attack from both left and right at the 28th congress of the communist party in July. His position in the party is a post he holds in addition to his recently expanded role as president of the Soviet Union, a job in which his term of office has four more years to go with the possibility of an additional five-year term. In a televised interview at the conference, Gorbachev indicated that, if in two years the policies of his leadership fail to show results, the present leadership must go. He denied that the Kremlin leadership would do anything to hold on to political power. “No,” he said “I will tell you, before perestroika we had more power. I don’t know who had more power than the general secretary of the Central Committee.” He praised the courage of the leadership in adopting his reform program although he confessed some mistakes had been made.

NATO’s Role in the New Europe Examined at Summit

In what some analysts see as the most crucial summit meeting since NATO was organized 41 years ago, 16 leaders of the member nations met in London to discuss its future role now that its eastern counterpart, the Warsaw pact, is being dissolved. The meeting was also designed to reassure the Soviet Union that a united Germany joining NATO will not be a threat to peace.

President George Bush proposed the invitation of Mikhail Gorbachev to address a future high-level NATO council in Brussels. Bush also proposed a formal declaration that the alliance would use nuclear weapons only as a last resort in a military confrontation. The alliance also agreed on the removal from West Germany of thousands of American short-range nuclear artillery shells that will no longer have targets once Soviet forces withdraw from East Germany.

Several of the delegates warned the meeting that, although there is a tendency to view the Soviet Union no longer as a threat, it must be remembered that its army is still the most formidable in Europe and its production of weapons still continues at a rapid pace. In spite of the pledge to use nuclear weapons only as a last resort, the member nations came out in favor of keeping the nuclear deterrent in Europe as a means of keeping the peace as it appears to have done successfully for over 40 years.

Oil Deposits Found in Mediterranean

An exploratory well, called Yam-2, in the Mediterranean sea about 10 miles off the Israeli coast near Ashdod gave preliminary indications of a significant find of oil. Although Is­ramco, the company operating the well, declined to release any figures until the completion of tests, outside estimates are that there are between 100,000 and 600,000 barrels of oil at the site, a significant amount for Israel but trivial by international standards.

Prospecting for oil in Israel has been going on for over 50 years but no commercially significant amounts have ever been found. If tests on the well prove encouraging, further exploration is likely in the area both off ­shore and in the adjacent areas on land.

Summit Leaves European Issues Unresolved

Mikhail Gorbachev’s recent visit to the United States produced agreement on a number of arms control issues including the reduction of long range nuclear weapons and the elimination of most poison gas arsenals. Left unresolved, however, were agreements on trade and a unified Germany’s NATO status. Although Gorbachev cannot prevent the two Germanies from uniting, he still has 380,000 troops in East Germany and he is unlikely to remove them without concessions on the question of NATO.

For now, the U.S. administration is adamant that the new Germany remain in NATO. To achieve this goal, it may be willing to accept changes in the role of NATO to satisfy Soviet security concerns. One possibility would make NATO more of a political alliance and redefine its military functions. Another alternative would create a Soviet observer status in NATO or limit NATO forces to the present West Germany. Whatever the compromise, it will have to be negotiated quickly to keep pace with the current integration process. A common currency is to be in place by July 2, and freely elected parliaments are to vote for union by the end of the year.

Emigration of Soviet Jews Continues Despite Arab Protests

So far this year, over 40,000 Soviet Jews have emigrated to Israel. With the number expected to increase to 20,000 per month, Arab leaders tried to establish a united front on the issue despite their other differences. Although Israeli officials denied that they will settle the immigrants in the occupied areas that Palestinians claim as their homeland, the Arabs fear this will indeed take place, forcing out the Palestinian inhabitants.

The 21-member Arab league meeting criticized the United States for supporting Israel. Iraqi President Saddam Hussein reiterated his call for the oil states to threaten with­drawal of their investments from any nation that supports Israel.

The most notable absentee from the meeting was Syrian President Hafez Assad who refused to go to Bagdad, the capital of his arch-rival. The efforts of Libya’s Moammar Qadafhi to moderate the 11-year old dispute were rebuffed.

From Jerusalem, Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir called for the Arab nations to enter into direct negotiations with Israel as he has done many times in the past. As usual, the appeal got no response from the Arab states which, except for Egypt, have never renounced the state of war that has existed since Israel became a nation in 1948. A growing segment of the Israeli population adamantly refuses to relinquish the conquered territories. The ongoing disunity among the Arab nations greatly favors their position.

In response to complaints from the PLO, Gorbachev said he might restrict emigration of Jews from Russia if they are settled in the occupied territories. Shamir, however, defended the right of Jews to live wherever they pleased. He declared his government’s policy to allow Jews to live anywhere in Israel — including the occupied West Bank, Gaza Strip and east Jerusalem.

East Jerusalem, with its large Arab population, remains the most controversial of the occupied territories. Over 95 percent of Israelis agree that it should never be negotiable in a peace agreement. The courts are now trying to rule on the rights of 20 armed Jewish settlers to move into the Christian quarter.

To this point, the violence of the intifada has not yet reached Jerusa­lem. Some observers, however, see the possibility of its becoming another Beirut if the authorities don’t keep tight control. Some have suggested international control, but the various population elements are too polarized to voluntarily accept such a solution. The city has indeed become the burdensome stone that Zechariah described (Zech.12:3), but those with faith in the word realize that mount Zion will be the “joy of the whole earth” when it becomes “the city of the great King” (Psa. 48:2).

Kashmir Dispute Becomes a Threat of Nuclear War

Ever since India and Pakistan became independent of Britain, the status of the predominantly Moslem state of Kashmir has been a cause of dispute between them. War erupted briefly in 1965 and it again appears to be threatening. This time a much more dangerous crisis exists because nuclear weapons are involved. India has nuclear capability and Pakistan is thought to be close to having it.

U.S. officials reported the situation as “alarming.” With both nations in an arms race and the population of the province in an increasingly secessionist mood, a U.S. administration aide said “the kindling is dry.”

Israeli Vigilance Thwarts Massive Terrorist Attack

Israeli security forces broke up an attack by Palestinian guerrillas in speedboats on the beaches near Tel Aviv. If the attack had been successful, it could have resulted in heavy casualties among the thousands on the seaside. Of the six speedboats released by a Libyan “mother ship” 120 miles off the coast, only one made it to shore but away from the bathing area. Its 11 occupants engaged Israeli troops in a gun battle in which four guerrillas were killed and the rest were captured.

One of those captured revealed on Israel TV that their plans were to shell the beach area, and then storm the beach-front Sheraton Hotel and “kill everyone inside.” Israeli officials said the raid was evidence that the PLO has not given up terrorism, as Yasser Arafat had pledged. The Palestinian Liberation Front claimed credit for the raid. This is an offshoot of the PLO led by Abdul Abbas who also planned the 1985 hijack of the Italian cruise ship Achille Lauro. Israeli officials claim that Abbas visited Arafat in Tunisia five days before the raid.

U.S. administration officials called unsuccessfully for Arafat to condemn the raid as a condition for continuing peace talks. Arafat would only say that the PLO was not involved but would not condemn it or take any action against Abbas. In Israel, Yitzhak Shamir’s administration wants the U.S. to reject the PLO as the spokesman for the Palestinian people.

Timetable Set For German Monetary Union

The first step toward union between East and West Germany, the establishment of a common monetary system, has been agreed upon and is scheduled to go into effect July 2. A compromise formula for converting the weak Eastern mark to the new Deutsche mark gives a favorable exchange rate to the savings of the East German elderly as well as to wages, rents, and pensions.

Since the currencies of the Warsaw pact countries were not convertible on the world market, an arbitrary value had to be established. Also taken into account was the promise of the Wert Germans to protect the pensions, savings and other assets of the East Germans. To accomplish this, the formula calls for converting up to 6000 marks at parity for those 60 and over. Those aged 15 to 59 are to be allowed up to 4000 marks, and children, 2000. Savings above these amounts and corporate debt will be at the rate of two Eastern marks for one new Deutsche mark, which is essentially the West German mark.

With the monetary issue settled, reunion may proceed quite rapidly once a conference of wartime allies reaches agreement on the military status and NATO affiliation of the new nation. Once the initial problem of rebuilding the East German economy is out of the way, the new Germany, with a population of 80 million, is expected to be the dominant power on the continent.

Environmental Issues Give Activists a Cause for the 90s

Magazines and newspapers ran special articles on environmental topics. Schools, colleges and environmental organizations organized teach-ins and other educational activities to focus public attention on the 20th anniversary of Earth Day. The general public has been unaware of the yearly event, but this year, possibly due to a scarcity of more sensational news, the publicity had more impact. Even many large corporations joined in the promotion with special advertising to show their commitment to a better environment.

A poll taken just before the event by a national news magazine showed that a slight majority of people claim that they are already making minor changes in their lifestyles, such as recycling newspapers, and metal and glass containers. A few claimed more drastic changes, like forming car pools or using public transportation. While many said they were contributors to organizations, fully 73 percent said they had no plans for participation in any Earth Day observances.

Although environmentalists name many gains for the environment over the past 20 years, they see the problems facing the world today to be potentially devastating and difficult to remedy. Acid rain, thinning of the Earth’s ozone layer, global warming, and destruction of tropical rain forests are a few of the problems calling for international cooperation. So far, no international agreement has been reached on what needs to be done or even whether some of the threats are real.

The Bible believer who considers these things will no doubt be reassured by words of scripture such as those of Isaiah (45:18) that “God himself that formed the earth and made it … he created it not in vain, he created it to be inhabited.” Isaiah 35 describes a renewed earth as one of the blessings of the messianic age. While awaiting that promised time, the believer will, no doubt, feel constrained to the extent that it is within his power to act responsibly toward the earth over which man has been given dominion.

Jews of Eastern Europe Fear Renewed Persecution

Moses warned Israel of the persecution and fear of persecution that would follow them if they were scattered among the nations of the world (Deut.28:65). Today this fear is still being felt among the Jews of Eastern Europe. Although the Jewish population of the Eastern Bloc nations is much lower than it was before World War II, those still living there are worried and thinking about how to handle a growing menace. With Soviet President Gorbachev’s policy of more open expression has come a perceived freedom to express hatred toward Jews. The persecution is not countenanced by the government, as was Nazi anti-Semitism; in fact, the Soviet constitution specifically forbids it. What alarms Jewish leaders today is the apparent lack of public opposition to the groups that are trying to revive ancient prejudices.

Economic troubles facing formercommunist nations are providing a fertile ground for anti-Semitic propa­ganda. It is said the old myth that the spread of communism was a Jewish conspiracy to control the world is again being circulated. As the econ­omy of the Eastern Bloc countries is expected to get worse before it gets better, many Jews see the possibility that anti-Semitic groups may blame them for their troubles.

Israel Defies U.S. in Drive to Build Settlements

For many years the Israeli government has sponsored the building of Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank and Gaza Strip. The obvious purpose is to get enough Jews living in these areas to make turning them back to Palestinian control out of the question.

The U.S. administration has protested settlements on the grounds that they are an obstacle to peace, but has not previously taken action to stop the practice. Recently, in an attempt to get stalled peace negotiations moving again, the U.S. has threatened to withhold 400 million dollars in extra aid promised for the resettlement of Soviet emigres unless the construction of settlements is stopped.

In a recent speech, Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir pledged to continue the settlement drive despite U.S. objections. Shamir’s Likud Party, the dominant political party in Israel, favors a policy of refusing to give up any more territory in the cause of peace or otherwise. Arab delegation’s in Moscow are lobbying the Soviet authorities to stop immigration to Israel. In addition, Yasser Arafat is reported to have given instructions to al-Fatah to attack Soviet Jewish immigrants. In view of this apparent impasse, peace for Israel seems a long way off.

Nuclear Danger Seen in Soviet Instability

The danger of civil war in the Soviet Union is a much-feared possibility. In fact, some analysts are concerned that a portion of the vast Soviet nuclear arsenal might fall into irresponsible hands. The U.S. government is said to have firm evidence that, during the uprising in Azerbaijan early this year, Moscow dispatched regular army units to reinforce KGB guards at nuclear sites in the region.

Soviet army leaders are concerned because some advanced mobile ICBM units now include recruits from local ethnic populations, rather than being composed exclusively of ethnic Russian as they once were. Republics with Moslem majorities, such as Azerbaijan, have long aspired to secede and form Islamic fundamentalist states like Iran; many Moslems identify with the rebels in Afghanistan in their opposition to Moscow.

These facts no doubt play apart in the reluctance of President Gorbachev to allow unilaterally declared independence movements to succeed. History has shown that it is easy for fast-moving revolutions to get out of hand. Many analysts believe it is in the best interests of all concerned to have a stable regime in control of the tremendous store of nuclear weapons that the Soviet Union has accumulated.

Dictator of Iraq threatens Israel

After a decade of war with Iran, Saddam Hussein has emerged as the most powerful and ruthless national leader in the Middle East. He has not hesitated to use poison gas on both Iran and his own dissident Kurdish tribesmen. His million-man army is the largest and best equipped in the Arab world and his avowed goal is the destruction of Israel.

Although he disclaims any interest in nuclear weapons, Saddam’ s agents were recently caught red-handed while attempting an illegal purchase of trigger components for nuclear warheads. In 1981, Iraq’s nuclear program was dealt a setback when Israeli warplanes bombed the Osirak reactor near Baghdad. Although most nations publicly condemned the raid, privately they breathed a sigh of relief.

Now the situation is different; Iraq has missiles capable of delivering poison gas warheads to any point in the Middle East. After the recent publicity concerning his nuclear bomb-building activities, Saddam threatened to annihilate “half of Israel” if Israel “tries to do anything” against Iraq. Since Iraq’s arms buildup practically rules out military action, the attitude of the U.S. and other Western powers is to draw Iraq into friendly relationships with other nations who have common interests such as Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. The hope is that their influence may keep the actions of Iraq within the bounds of moderation.

New Excavations at Hazor to Begin this Year

The ancient city of Hazor in Upper Galilee figured prominently in Joshua’s conquest of the land of Canaan which took place about the year 1300 BC. Joshua described it as built on a mound like other cities in the area (Josh. 11:10-13). This mound or tel is the largest of its kind in Israel and contains much valuable archaeological information about occupants of the site, both before and after Joshua’s time.

Excavations were made there in 1955-58 and 1968-69 by Prof. Yigael Yadin of the Hebrew University. Prof. Yadin found evidence of a massive fire which he believed supported the biblical account of the destruction of the city by Joshua. In the years since this work was done, scientists have excavated material at the site. They have brought to light some previously overlooked cuneiform tablets thought to be part of an archive of documents dated over a thousand years before the time of Joshua.

Evidence in the few fragments found at Hazor suggest a school for scribes existed there. References in the Amama Tablets in Egypt indicate a royal archive of cuneiform tablets was kept by the king of Hazor. Because of the importance of the written word to archaeological research, a search for this archive is going to be one of the main objectives of the expedition. The language of the tablets is Akkadian, which was the diplomatic language used by the nations in the fertile crescent, regardless of their locally spoken language.

The work is to be led by Prof. Amnon Ben-Tor of the Hebrew University, a former student of the now deceased Prof. Yadin. Archaeologists from universities in Spain, the U.S. and Scandinavia also plan to participate. The project is expected to take five years, with this year’s six-week season to begin in July.

Israeli President calls for Political Changes

The prophet Hosea (2:4) predicted that the children of Israel would dwell many days without a king or prince, and so it has been throughout their dispersal and latter-day regathering. Today they are governed by a parliamentary system that 80% of the population thinks needs to be changed.

The issue was illustrated recently — the government collapsed over the question of including PLO members in negotiations with Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir. After the vote of no confidence, President Chaim Herzog called on opposition party leader Shimon Peres to form a new government, but devoted many of his remarks to the need for changes to the system. The difficulty with the present system is that, due to the great number of minority parties, neither of the two major parties, Labor or Likud, have the necessary majority in the Knesset to form a government. In the absence a majority, whichever party can manage to get enough minority party support is the one able to form a government.

For several years now neither party has gotten the minority support it needs, so a coalition or working agreement between the two major parties has been necessary for the government to function. In the debate over the peace plan, Shamir lost the support of the hard-liners in his own Likud Party as well as other members who adamantly oppose any concessions that might lead to relinquishment of territory. With the peace plan now delayed while the lengthy process of forming a new government goes on, many are calling for changes to the election process so that clear winners are more likely to emerge.