A Time of Peace and Safety
Many of the wars that have been raging for years appear to be coming to an end. A cease fire has been called in the Iran-Iraq war. The Soviet Union has agreed to pull out of Afghanistan. Vietnam has agreed to talk about ending its occupation of Cambodia. South Africa, Cuba and Angola appear ready to negotiate a plan to get the Cubans out of Angola and grant independence from South Africa to Namibia.
Editorial writers and commentators have been speculating on the reasons for the relative calm that seems to be coming over the world. The weariness of the belligerents is one major factor. A more cooperative attitude between the Soviet Union and the United States is seen as perhaps even more important. In many of the trouble spots of the world the concerted action of the major powers through the United Nations, has brought the belligerents to the bargaining table whereas, before, the superpowers were allowing many third world nations to play them one against the other.
How long the euphoria will continue remains to be seen. One commentator has noted that September marks the fiftieth anniversary of the signing of the infamous Munich Pact with Adolph Hitler. The agreement that a naive Neville Chamberlain extolled as “peace in our time.” A year later the most terrible war in history enveloped the world and affected in some way the lives of nearly everyone on earth. In I Thess. 5:3, the apostle Paul wrote that the unenlightened will be speaking of peace and safety when the destruction of the day of the Lord comes as a thief in the night, but the children of light are prepared at all times.
A Barrier to Soviet Expansion Removed
The death of Pakistan’s President Zia ul-Haq and 29 others, including two American officials, in a plane crash in August removes from the scene the man some observers credit more than any other with the failure of the Soviet Union to win a victory in its eight year war in Afghanistan. Zia provided the leadership to place his nation in strong opposition to Soviet designs and provide the conduit for United States military aid to reach the Afghan resistance.
Although the successor to Zia is pledged to continue his policies, most observers agree that Pakistan will probably be weaker in the future. Zia’ s successors are thought to be less inclined to risk Soviet military retaliation for the support of the Mujahedin rebels and also less inclined to tolerate the domestic political problems created by the taking in of millions of Afghan refugees.
According to the report of United Nations observers, Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan is progressing on schedule and is expected to continue to do so. But with Zia gone, the pressure by the Mujahedin rebels on the puppet government in Kabul may falter and leave the Soviet puppet regime in control of the centers of population. If the new Pakistan leadership falls under Soviet domination, it will leave Turkey as the last pro-western nation on the Soviet Union’s southern border, from Europe to Vietnam.
Global Food Scarcity Predicted
As if droughts, global warming trends and ozone holes were not dreary enough, the think tank, World Watch Institute, reports that the world’s reserves of food grains will fall from 101 days to 54 days by the beginning of 1989, the sharpest one year drop ever in international grain stockpiles. Although the drop in itself is not expected to create an immediate crisis, the trend, if continued, may well mean food scarcity and higher prices in the 1990’s.
Drought in many parts of the world is blamed, with good harvests in Europe, India, and the Soviet Union being insufficient to offset the losses. Other factors affecting the long-term trend include lowering water tables due to excessive irrigation, soil erosion and reduction of the amount of land available for farming due to development to accommodate burgeoning populations.
Although some experts are hopeful that in the long term yields may be increased somewhat by new technology, they agree that another year of declining harvests may mean famine for many of the marginal food producing countries. Rising prices will seriously affect the food-aid programs such as Ethiopian relief. In 1973, when the grain stockpile dropped to 57 days, grain commodity prices doubled. With funds for third world aid already scarce, the outlook for victims of drought or disaster looks grim in the future if divine providence does not intervene.
Jordan Presents the PLO with an Opportunity
After King Hussein made his historic declaration in which he abandoned all Jordanian claims to the West Bank and Gaza territories, the question of how Israel should react was hotly debated in the Israeli government. These territories that Israel has occupied militarily since the 1967 war have been increasingly troubled by clashes between the civilian population and the Israeli military authorities. There has always been a faction in the Knesset that favored outright annexation of these territories regardless of world opinion. Since King Hussein’s declaration, the strength of this faction has grown dramatically. There is also much opposition to allowing an independent Palestinian state to be established.
Over the years, Israeli leaders have taken comfort in the fact that the Palestinians have been too disunited to agree on a policy that would get the backing of world opinion in favor of an independent Palestinian state. Now with Jordanian ties to the territories broken, the PLO is being challenged to play the role of the legitimate representative of the Palestinian people. Hard line Israeli politicians fear now that if the PLO were to accept United Nations Security Council Resolutions 242 and 338 as well as recognize Israel’s right to exist, the U.S. government would pressure Israel to negotiate with the PLO over the future status of the territories.
Recently, repressive measures have been taken by the Israeli government which critics say are designed to destroy the infrastructure of a potential Palestinian state. A federation of 108 Palestinian charities, a press association, a federation of 45 trade unions and the professional societies of Palestinian lawyers, doctors and engineers were closed as organizations considered fronts for the PLO.
The Fatah, Yassir Arafat’s faction of the PLO is said to be testing the waters among the European Community countries regarding the formation of a government in exile to fill the void left by Jordan. Application for membership in the U.N. is also being considered but U.N. experts virtually rule out any such possibility on the grounds that the PLO controls no territory.
The many months of turmoil in the territories have opened to public debate a wide range of ideas for the solution of the problem. These range from the expulsion of the Arab population and annexation of the territories to direct talks with the Palestinians and unilateral withdrawal. In polls taken among the adult Jewish population in Israel, the pendulum is shown to be swinging in the direction of moving the Arabs out, a position which, if adopted, is almost certain to have serious public relations consequences among friends and foes alike.