During the last two months, the world has watched with fear and we have observed with interest the turmoil that continues in the new Russia.
While it is only one of the former republics of the Soviet Union, it is clearly the most important. The New York Times of February 28, 1991 reports that Russia is in the process of gaining control of all the nuclear weapons that once belonged to the Soviet Union. “The transfer of all short-range nuclear weapons to Russia from other former Soviet Republics will probably be completed by May, two months ahead of schedule, a senior Russian general said today. General Sergei Zelentsov, chief nuclear engineer in the Russian Defense Ministry described the new timetable for the withdrawal of the tactical warheads (mostly nuclear tipped artillery shells and short range missiles) outside of Russia.”
New dangers result
The specific plan is that all of the weapons will be collected, stored and destroyed by the end of the century. One hundred tons of weapons-grade plutonium and 400-500 tons of highly enriched uranium could be recovered from the dismantling process. This could result in the rise of new industries. The manpower is surely available; close to 1,000 nuclear trained scientists are now under employed.
The New York Times article continued, “In order to help promote peaceful use of the scientific knowledge that goes into making the arms, the Bush Administration has pledged $25 million to help establish commercial projects. By financing peaceful research on commercial projects, the Administration seeks to blunt the temptation of ex-Soviet nuclear experts to move to aspiring nuclear powers like Iran, Iraq or Libya.”
Authorities are not sure if this money and effort will be enough to dissuade the Russian scientific community from seeking greener pastures. The big question is how much longer can these scientists hold out.
The Associated Press reported on January 9, 1992 that, “A Russian scientist said yesterday that Libya has offered high-paying jobs to his colleagues at Moscow’s top nuclear institute, providing new evidence that the Soviet Union’s collapse could spread nuclear technology.” Western leaders have expressed mounting concern that the breakup of the Soviet Union and its crumbling economy could lead to the transfer of nuclear weapons — or scientists capable of building them.
Libya recently offered jobs to nuclear scientists with tempting $2,300-a-month salaries. The deputy chief of the thermonuclear department at the leading institute of atomic energy noted that “many of the specialists at our institute are pursuing with great interest the chance to work abroad.” Yevgeny N. Avrorin, the scientific leader of one of two Russian research centers for nuclear weapons design, said such temptations would be natural, but hoped “a moral threshold” against spreading nuclear technology would prevent scientists from selling their talents indiscriminately.
The leadership
An interesting trend has developed in the new Russia — the rise of the political right. This rise has been propelled by the increasing economic hardship experienced by most Russian citizens. Enormously high food prices have been in effect for two months; many have lost jobs and many more fear losing them; soldiers are poorly paid, suffer inadequate housing and face career uncertainty as a result of the disintegration of the Union. These factors have all contributed to the rise of reactionary nationalism and general discontent within Russia.
Since January 2, prices in the new Russia are up an average of 350% and standards of living have fallen dramatically. Understandably, President Yelstin’s government is under attack from both the right and left and Boris Yeltsin’s personal popularity has dropped from 60% to 20%.
On February 8, 3,000 people gathered in Manezh Square to protest against Yeltsin’s government and its initiatives. In addition, the Reds (hard-line communists) and the Browns (extreme right wingers) have organized noisy and occasionally violent demonstrations in attempts to attract support.
Aleksander Rutskoi
A former air force general, Rutskoi was instrumental in persuading the Soviet military from attacking Yeltsin during last July’s aborted coup attempt. Today, he is a Vice President in the cabinet with no duties but with a very loyal following. Should Yeltsin depart, Mr. Rutskoi is the legal successor to the presidency.
The New York Times of February 9 reported that “The Vice President was stripped of his chairmanship of five major committees after he made a series of biting attacks against the government’s plans for economic change.” The article continued to note Mr. Rutskoi’s tremendous popularity. “Mr. Rutskoi enjoys the support of army officers and managers of military industries, which have been hard hit by budget cuts.” Were it not for Mr. Rutskoi’s personal popularity, Boris Yeltsin would have expelled him rather than merely relieving him of his duties.
Vladimir Zhirinovsky
Zhirinovsky is widely seen as a possible future Russian dictator, reports the Economist (February 29, 1992). His platform has earned him comparisons to Hitler. He is a fascist and ran third in the presidential election. He promotes the greatness of the Russian nation, the need for an authoritative central government and the benefits of state capitalism.
Boris Yeltsin
It has been noted by many that Yeltsin does not behave in the most democratic fashion. The Economist (Feb. 29, 1992) reports that he “rules by decree, by-passes parliament, and last year vetoed local elections in order to appoint personal representatives as local governors.” He may be a wolf in sheep’s clothing. Time (March 9, 1992) reports Yeltsin himself as saying, “If Russia fails in its reforms, especially of the economy, a dictatorship will appear.”