Signs Of The Times (Part 94 of 0)

Signs of the Times – Part unknown

A Brief Review of Recent Russian History

“…Workers of all lands, struggle against the imperialists. There is no other way.” This message came from the Lenin-led Bolsheviks in December, 1917. Shortly thereafter, the Red Army was formed and a period known as “War Communism” began.

By 1920, overall industrial production of the Soviet Union plunged to a sixth the level of 1913. Following the droughts of 1920-21, there were terrible famines that were largely man-made. The government issued the Food Decree which provided for military and industrial workers. Non-workers were put on rations of a sixteenth pound of bread a day, “to insure that the bourgeoisie do not forget the smell of bread.” During this early period of communist control, 3 million people died of starvation; another 6 million perished from related causes such as disease and exhaustion.

From 1921-28, the Tenth Party Congress adopted the New Economic Policy. This allowed for the resumption of private trade and small private industries. World observers concluded that Lenin’s communist revolution had failed and he was leading the nation back to capitalism. The Russian leaders countered that the new policies were the road to communism. The state continued to control 85% of the industrial workers and tightened controls overall throughout the country.

The Stalin era began in 1927 with the 15th party congress. Severe purges occurred, lasting until 1933. Stalin killed a total of 40 million people during his reign. For subsequent rulers, the purge became a standard tactic of Russian control.

Gorbachev

When Mikhail Gorbachev became leader of the Soviet Union in 1985, the change in public image was dramatic. He has rivaled the greatest Western statesmen with his charisma, pronouncing changes that climaxed in his winning the Nobel Peace Prize. He has shaken the communist world like no leader since Lenin.

Perestroika

The word means “restructuring” and summarized a policy calling for a “radical reform of the economic mechanism.” Older leaders were replaced by a younger group whose initial goals were to stress discipline and productivity in the work place.

By 1987, a second phase was instituted emphasizing decentralization of the economy and encouraging development of small private enterprises. The goal was an improvement in the standard of living within “a modernized communist society that is not modeled on totalitarian, Stalinist lines.”

In 1988, official pronouncements proudly publicized industrial production had increased 6.4%. But few among the populace could see any improvement. By October, 1989, unrest heightened as things were obviously not working out as planned. Some leaders believed Gorbachev was moving too slowly to affect any real changes while the conservatives wanted to return to Stalin’s measures. Gorbachev vacillated.

Appalling conditions

In spite of spectacular success in its space program, the general condition of the Russian economy is like a third-world country. A family of three living in above-average quarters will share 323 square feet of living area, a bathroom with four other families and a kitchen with two more families. More than one-half the schools have no central heat, running water or inside toilets. A 950 bed hospital might have two hypodermic syringes. Today’s Soviet citizen has a poorer diet than the Russians who lived under Czar Nicholas II in 1913. At that time, Russia (occupying one-sixth of the world’s land mass) was the world’s largest food exporter. Today they are the number one importer of food.

Glasnost

The word means “openness” and describes a policy dedicated to expanding the rights of the individ­ual, allowing diverse opinions and permitting publicity of program failures.

One of the dramatic results of this policy has been the changes that have occurred in Eastern Europe, highlighted by the fall of the iron curtain. But a darker side has also occurred. While we are accustomed to open publicity of problems, most countries are not. When things are bad, misleading or no information can actually help suppress a general uprising because everybody is not aware of the generally deplorable conditions that exist. Gorbachev’s problem is that he has committed himself to a policy of openness (Glasnost) while not improving the disastrous economic conditions.

Today and the future

The combination of openness with worsening economic conditions is fertilizing the prospect of revolution or a renewal of severe repression. For example, Gorbachev has recently restricted news coverage of the events associated with the independence activities of many of the 15 individual Soviet states. More and more he is relying on the KGB to maintain order. And tens of thousands of soldiers have come home from Europe to an economically troubled land and are now acting as state police by quelling demonstrations in the provinces. In fact, the army itself is becoming more difficult to control as their reduced budget is leading them to rely on conscripts from the provinces rather than strictly from the Russian republic.

Faced with unpopularity at home, problems in the Baltic’s and other areas, military unrest and economic depression the question is pertinent – can Gorbachev survive? If the past is any indication of the future, there will either be a change in personnel or in personality.

(Information for the above was drawn from the Encyclopedia Britannica, Russia and the Soviet Union by Warren Walsh and A Historian’s History of the World vol. 17 & 18 edited by A.S. Rappaport.)

The events of the past several months have been thrilling to watch as Bible prophecy unfolds before our very eyes. What a privilege to be alive to witness Christ and his angels line up the nations of the world for the final phase of these last days.

The gulf war has ended; Iraq’s military machine has been demolished; the allied nations are making plans to establish a new world order of peace in the Middle Fast.

Little do they know that their plans for lasting peace will be blasted away by a Russian invasion of the Mid-East. It is the event we long for because the Prince of Peace will then reveal himself to the world.

The Effects of Iraq’s Invasion of Kuwait

When Iraq invaded Kuwait on August 2, 1990, it was difficult to foresee the impact it would have on the nations in these last days. The results of Iraq’s actions are now clear, and the marvelous plan of God can be seen unfolding according to His word. Consider some of the following major developments that have transpired due to Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait.

Iraq’s offensive military capability is destroyed!

Iraq was the only Arab nation with the military ability to present a meaningful threat to Israel. It boasted chemical, biological and even nuclear capabilities which Sad-darn Hussein claimed he was willing to use. Now all this has changed dramatically! Iraq’s ability to carry on an offensive war against Israel (or any other strong nation) has been effectively eliminated. All that she has left is enough military equipment to defend the country against an outside invader.

Not only has Iraq’s current mili­tary machine been destroyed, but its future military ability will also be closely monitored by the UN, USA and other Arab nations. They will seek to make sure it does not develop the capability to initiate a similar invasion again in the future.

The Palestinian problem

The Iraqi invasion of Kuwait has generated tremendous pressure on all the Middle East nations to find a solution to the Palestinian problem. Many people throughout the world are demanding that a realistic solution be found which will bring about lasting peace to the whole area. It has even been reported that Syria’s president, Hafez Al-Assad, is ready to acknowledge Israel’s right to exist as a nation once the gulf war is over.

The Israeli government knows that, as soon as the gulf war is over, the next phase of the larger plan will bring pressure on Israel to negotiate a compromise with the Palestinians. Israel could be pressured to give up land on the West Bank in exchange for a UN guaranteed peace in the area.

On February 3, 1991, Israel’s Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir brought into his cabinet a hard-line politician, Rehavam Zeevi. Zeevi advocates the expulsion of all Palestinians living in the occupied territories in Israel. He wants all the Palestinians uprooted and forced into Jordan. Many analysts are convinced that Shamir brought Zeevi into the cabinet so the government will be in a stronger position to resist the pressure to compromise with the Palestinians after the gulf war.

Jews and Arabs united

One of the most amazing results of the Iraqi occupation of Kuwait is that for once the Jews and many Arabs were united on a major political issue. They finally found a common enemy in Saddam Hussein. As Iraq shot Scud missiles at Israel and Israel refused to retaliate, many of the Arab nations developed a new respect for the Israelis. This is just now surfacing as the war comes to a close. When the ground war began, the military spokesmen stressed that Syria, Egypt, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia all had troops involved in the war to liberate Kuwait.

Russia smothers Baltic revolution

One development which resulted from Iraq’s aggression did not happen in the Middle East. While all the world focused their attention on Saddam Hussein and his barbaric invasion of Kuwait, Michail Gorbachev used the Russian military to violently suppress revolutions occurring in the Baltic countries. Gorbachev’s action barely received notice, much less condemnation, from the rest of the world. This should clearly remind us that, while Russia is going through many political and economic changes, its military remains strong and Gorbachev will use force to prevent fragmentation of the U.S.S.R.

Russia Too Close To Stop

Although the U.S.-led coalition did overpower Iraq, it took six months of continuous, uncontested airlifts to get men and material into the area. When the Russian-led coalition moves against Israel as stipulated in Ezk. 38, the United States will not have time to organize such a defense. Russia could invade the region in days from her southern areas.

Power to Control People

As the events of the last few months unfolded, we were given an opportunity to witness a human leader who had amazing power to control his people. While the allied army positioned itself to begin the war, Saddam told his people that Iraq would win and they believed him. After one month of the most intense bombing in the history of mankind, Hussein continued to say Iraq would win the war and many of the people interviewed in Baghdad and Amman, Jordan still believed it.

As one watched the reactions of the Iraqi people, it became clear how difficult it will be for Christ and the saints to change the allegiance of many people throughout the world. Millions of Catholics will follow the advice of the Pope rather than accept Jesus Christ. Furthermore, many other people in the world have sworn their allegiance to some religious or political leader. The destruction of thousands of Iraqis in the short gulf war may be just a small example of the destruction which will occur throughout the world as all nations are subjugated to the king­dom of our Lord and of his saints.

“Arabs Will Conquer Israel” Theory is Dead

To those looking for the Arabs to invade and conquer Israel in the last days, the Persian Gulf war has been God’s proof that this will not happen. Iraq was the only Arab country having the military might and manpower to take on the Israelis, and now that military machine has been crushed. It will take years for Iraq to militarily rebuild to the point that it could mount an invasion of Israel.

There is danger in an incorrect view of Bible prophecy. Because of the present situation in the Arab na­tions, those expecting the Arabs to defeat Israel could be lulled into feeling the kingdom must be many years away. The Arabs are as divided as ever and now none of their countries possess the equipment needed to conquer Israel.

How ironic that at such an exciting time in history, as prophecy is fulfilling before our eyes, some brothers and sisters may be disap­pointed with the destruction of Iraq because it does not correlate with their views of latter-day events. In the last two months, God has pro­vided clear indication that He has no intention of letting any Arab nation conquer Israel. Saddam Hussein tried everything he could think of to unite the Arabs in a Holy war against Israel. It must have been a great work of angelic activity that prevented Israel from direct retaliation to the Scud attacks. But Israel showed remarkable restraint and Hussein’s plans were thwarted.

Perhaps in the days that are left before Christ returns, Christadelphi­ans can once again present a united front on Bible prophecy to our interested friends and young people. Let us remember to “Watch Israel” and “Watch Russia” as we enter the final phase of the last days.

(Bro. Troy Haltom is now coordinating the Signs of the Times column and contributions for it should be mailed to his attention at Box 305.

This month’s section is expanded in response to the current interest in the great events happening before our eyes.)

War in the Middle East

Following the January 15 deadline, United Nations forces made good on their threat of war against Iraq. Giving no indication that he intended to withdraw from Kuwait, Saddam Hussein’s country came under bombardment by the air power of the coalition nations. The first days of the air assault were impressive as missiles and bombers hit their targets with pinpoint accuracy. The war continues to take on ominous features as the Iraqi leadership remains obdurate, but the outcome for Iraq must be inevitable. The political fallout after the war will likely be as hazardous as the war itself.

After sustaining several “Scud” missile attacks from Iraq, Israel has so far managed to stay out of the conflict, since her entry would have a negative effect on the Arab partners in the coalition. The result at this time is a markedly closer tie between Israel and the U.S. The Israeli government has promised to respond to the Iraqi aggression at the appropriate time. However, that will likely have little impact on the improved relations with Washington which, before the war, had reached a dangerous low-point.

It is now known that Saddam Hussein was mining uranium right in Iraq and that he was on his way to producing his own nuclear weapons. There can be little question that this man had gone as far as Providence would allow. The purpose of God will be worked out according to His discretion, whatever man’s intentions to the contrary.

After the War

The cause of the Palestinians appears to be suffering a setback as a result of the war. The PLO’s sympathies have been with Saddam Hussein — to whom they looked as a liberator — and that places them on the losing side. There has been much attention given to a homeland for the Palestinians, however, which is bound to resurface as a prime issue when the war is over. Palestinians have long been seen as the underdogs, putting Israel in a very unsympathetic light to many people. The U.S. avoided linkage between Iraq’s withdrawal from Kuwait and the Palestinian problem, but pressure will be brought to bear to address that issue.

Henry Kissinger in Newsweek (Jan. 28, 1991) suggested that diplomacy alone would not have dislodged Iraq from Kuwait, and more importantly, it would not have affected Saddam Hussein’s military build-up. The U.S. must concern itself, he says, with the post-war bal­ance of power in the region. “We must also remember the possibility of renewed Soviet designs on the region,” Kissinger writes. “For the time being, domestic problems keep the Soviets from running any significant foreign risks. But 200 years of Russian expansionism toward the gulf indicate a certain proclivity…After some domestic equilibrium is restored, the Kremlin may become more active in the Mideast.” He suggests that Moscow may seek favor in the Arab world by embracing Islamic radicalism.

Dr. Kissinger takes an optimistic view of Arab-Israeli peace prospects. With Saddam Hussein out of the way, he thinks that “moderate Arab leaders will gain in stature, and America’s credibility will be enhanced.” His assessment may be less than accurate, but certainly the U.S. has established a presence and influence in the Middle East that will not soon be withdrawn. And it is a position that, at some point, must be challenged by President Gorbachev – or his successor.

History of Iraq

Iraq is the heart of the old Babylonian empire and for centuries little was heard from the ancient area. When archaeologists went there in the late 1800’s to excavate the ruins of Babylon and Ur, the country was poor and backward. Much of the country was a wasteland, inhabited only by a few Bedouins.

The Ottomans took control of Iraq in the 16th century and held it until 1917. It was an unstable coun­try, and the centuries under Ottoman rule were marked by frequent insurrections.

The British occupied Iraq during World War 1. Under their protection, a monarchy was established in 1921, and full independence was achieved in 1932.

Pro-German activities in World War II led to another British occupation of Iraq in 1941. A revolution ended the monarchy in 1958. There was a succession of military coups until 1968 when the socialist Ba’th party took control. The Ba’thist leader was Saddam Hussein, and he has ruled Iraq from the 1970’s.

Saddam has made himself an absolute ruler and has exercised his leadership ruthlessly. He has come to see himself as a modern Saladin with an ambition to lead the Arab world.

Kuwait

Kuwait has been a constitutional monarchy governed by the Sabah family. The family controlled everything, but they have provided a high standard of living for the country’s 750,000 Kuwaiti citizens. The sheikdom dates from 1756 when Abd Rahim of the Al Sabah family be­came sheik.

The small sheikdom came to the attention of European powers in the late 19th century when the Germans were building the Berlin-Baghdad railway. The railway was to be extended to the Kuwaiti port. To thwart both German and Ottoman influences, Great Britain and Kuwait concluded an agreement in 1899 whereby Britain assumed control of Kuwait’s foreign affairs. Following the outbreak of war with the Ottomans in 1914, Britain established a protectorate over Kuwait.

Both Saudi-Arabia and Iraq have at times tried to claim all or part of Kuwait. The northern frontier with Iraq was agreed upon in 1923. In June of 1961, the British government announced recognition of full independence for Kuwait. This was followed by an Iraqi claim that all of Kuwait belonged to Iraq. The British sent troops to defend Kuwait at that time. The Arab League recognized the sovereignty of Kuwait in July, 1961, and the Iraqi claim was dropped. Saddam Hussein has reasserted that claim.

Joseph Banta

Another Brother Writes

War in the Middle East

As these remarks are being written, it is still too early to see clearly all that God is accomplishing with the current war in the Middle East. But already major developments have occurred as we watch the na­tions being drawn to Armageddon.

Iraq

It’s apparent that Saddam Hussein had developed the capacity to destroy Israel, and that Iraq had prepared massive fortifications in order to absorb retaliatory action from Israel or the U.S. The magnitude of Iraq’s offensive weapons is astounding: hundreds of “Scud” missiles, mobile launchers, 500 combat aircraft, 4,200 tanks and 545,000 troops. All of this destructive power would at some point have been directed at Israel if the angels had not caused the U.S. to intervene when Iraq invaded Kuwait

Many Arabs feel that the U.S. is hypocritical in fighting to enforce U.N. resolutions against Iraq while supporting Israel’s defiance of other resolutions. However, we can surely see God’s hand in weakening Iraq and reducing her ability to threaten Israel’s existence.

Iraq’s bitter hatred of Israel is fueled by a long-smoldering intent to avenge the bombing of the Osirak nuclear facility in 1981 which de­layed Hussein’s nuclear program for many years.

Russia

Viewed in the light of the gulf war, events in the U.S.S.R. during the past five years take on special significance. The failure of the Communist system to keep pace with technological advances in Western countries combined with their inability to improve the production and distribution of food and consumer goods has prompted Mikhail Gorbachev to take drastic measures. He has attempted a major restructuring of his economy (perestroika) and has permitted a more open society (glasnost).

Russia has been forced to turn to the West for industrial and financial assistance and to cooperate with the U.S., albeit with great reluctance, in the coalition against Iraq. This is the first time since World War II that the U.S. could have attacked Iraq without fear of Russian intervention. The severity of Russia’s internal problems has forced her to the sidelines as a spectator in the current conflict; we can well imagine how humiliating this must be.

US News & World Report (1/28/ 91) commented, “The disappearance of a Soviet threat has transformed this crisis. Only with Soviet cooperation could the United States turn to the United Nations early on. Only because Western Europe is now safe could the United States pull half its forces out of Germany to achieve a massive build-up in the gulf. Only because they no longer fear the Soviets could Americans fire off their top weapons. In Korea and Vietnam, the United States held back its best technology for fear that we would give away secrets to the Russians.” God opened a window of opportunity for the U.S. to act and during that very time, Iraq attacked Kuwait inviting her own destruction.

Already this window of opportunity appears to be closing. Mr. Gorbachev’s restructuring has so far only made conditions worse. Furthermore, the policy of glasnost has led to demands by several of the republics for greater freedom; this has prompted a crackdown by the Communist hard liners and the military generals, who are determined to keep the U.S.S.R. from breaking up. The Soviets appear to be reverting to their totalitarian ways which would be more in line with the part Russia will play as head of the great northern confederacy that comes against Is­rael (see Ezk. 38). As a consequence, we may see a rapid cooling off in the rapprochement between the U.S. and U.S .S .R.

Momentarily, the U.S. appears the world’s strong man, but we know this will not be the case when Russia invades Israel and the U.S. is powerless to stop the advance. As we have seen during the last two years, apparent long-term conditions can turn with remarkable speed. Following the resignation of Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze, The Detroit News commented (12/ 21/90), “A new threat to the West may arise at just the time its military anchor, the United States, has more than half of its effective armed forces encamped in the Saudi Arabian desert…A new Soviet threat could arise virtually overnight. More than one dictator has found military expansion to be a convenient means of distracting his people from their troubles. It’s especially troubling that intelligence sources have found evidence that military production in the Soviet Union has continued to increase despite the West’s assumption that the Cold War is over.”

Israel

One of the unforeseen consequences of the Gulf War has been the healing of the U.S.-Israel breach. President Bush and Prime Minister Shamir are again talking and Israel has initially withheld any retaliation for the Scud missile attacks. Saddam Hussein’s Israel strategy has so far clearly backfired and he has unwittingly strengthened the U.S.-Israel partnership and the coalition allied against him.

At the same time, it must be apparent to Israel that she cannot continue to withstand worldwide pressure regarding the Palestinian issue and continue trying to go it alone in defending herself against an enemy as intractable and well fortified as was the case with Iraq. It seems inevitable that she must now cooperate with the Western nations in seeking a solution to the Palestinian problem which will permit her to coexist with the surrounding Arab countries. Ezekiel 38 is very definite in three places (vs. 8,11,14) that the northern invader comes into a land that is dwelling securely. This war has served to highlight that the “Israel problem” must be solved before peace will come to the Middle East.

Furthermore, events of the past few weeks have demonstrated to the Israelis that U.S. concern for Israel’s security is not empty talk. The U.S. willingness to protect Israel should help her to accept a U.S. guaranteed settlement.

Additional factors

The Palestine Liberation Organization (P.L.O.), as a result of siding with Iraq, may well be discredited and be excluded from any peace negotiations which should make it easier for Israel to participate in such discussions.

Syria has shown a new willingness to cooperate since the Soviet Union no longer supplies it with weapons. All of these factors may combine to enable the U.S. and U.S.S.R. to impose a settlement between Israel and her neighbors in the aftermath of the war, which will appear momentarily to bring peace and security to the region.

United States

Many of us have watched and waited for the U.S. and Britain to establish a presence in the Middle East, expecting them to be the latter-day Tarshish power of Ezekiel 38 and the king of the South of Daniel 11. None of the Arab nations want the U.S. to remain in their countries when the war ends. Many analysts are now predicting, however, that the U.S. is there for the long term and is the only world power with the resources and the willingness to stabilize the area. It is projected that they will be expected to repeat in the Middle East what they accomplished in Europe by their continued presence after World War II.

For the moment, the U.S. appears to be a mighty superpower, with the strength and will to enforce its vision of a new world order. But this is more illusion than reality.

One result of the Gulf War could be a further weakening of the U.S. economy, its financial institutions and its ability to wage war. “A victory in the Gulf wouldn’t change the fact that we’ve got a sick banking system, a savings and loan crisis and deteriorating real estate” (USNWR 1/28/91). A private warning to President Bush by administration officials indicates the war to free Kuwait may last into June or beyond. Time reported (1/28/91) “the spector of a major war has created a virtual paralysis in the U.S. economy already plagued by recession, deep budget deficits and troubled banks.” It depicted this grim scenario if the war drags on: “Fighting that continues as long as a year could drag the U.S. into a deeper recession that would harm many of its trading partners as well. Government borrowing to finance the war’s cost would keep interest rates high, which would strangle many companies that loaded up on debt during the 1980’s. The slump would topple many more banks and could even trigger a panic in the financial system.” Again, we can see how quickly God could humble the U.S. when the time is right for Russia to assert its might.

“Behold I come as a thief”

We know from Revelation 16 that our Lord returns unexpectedly, prior to the battle of the great day of God Almighty. The resurrection and judgment and the organizing of the saints to accompany Christ in subduing the nations will take time, perhaps several years.

My own conviction is that we could be called away to meet our Lord at any time now, and that we will not be here when the final events unfold leading to Armageddon. “Blessed is he who watches and keeps his garments,” and is not taken unawares.

Center stage – The Middle East

As this is written, the U.S. has over 500,000 troops stationed in the Saudi Arabian desert and war has commenced against Iraq. We do not know how these events will affect the alignment of nations in the area, but the entire situation dramatizes once again that this has been the century of the Middle East.

Landmarks, one after the other, have been passed, leading surely to the final accomplishment of the purpose of God.

As the century began, the Ottoman Empire had control of most of the region, including Palestine. The Empire which had controlled all of the Middle East had long shown signs of decline. From 1908 to 1913, it was plagued by revolts and was driven out of Europe. Then, in 1918, it experienced a disastrous defeat at the hands of Britain and the Allies during World War I. Revolution followed; the last emperor was overthrown in 1922, and modern Turkey was formed. The Empire had dried up leaving in the Middle East a political vacuum.

Palestine to Israel

The Romans, after the fall of Jerusalem, referred to the land as Syria Palaestina. (Palestine, or Phil­istia, referred originally to a small coastal area northeast of Egypt.) The title of Palestine was officially revived under the mandate of the League of Nations, administered by Great Britain. The mandate incorporated the Balfour Declaration of 1917, which stated that British policy favored the establishment of a national home for the Jewish people in Palestine. The Declaration was approved by the principal Allied powers, including the U.S., with Britain governing the country until after World War II.

The State of Israel was proclaimed on May 14, 1948. Surrounding Arab states immediately attacked. From this war, Israel emerged with about 50% more land than had been allotted under the U.N. plan. Subsequent wars with their Arab neighbors further enlarged Israeli possessions, but peace and security have not been attained. Israel continues to feel threatened by the hostile neighbors who surround her.

The Palestinians

The Arabs who lived in the Land under Turkish domination, and then under the British mandate, developed their own nationalism during the period of the early Zionist settlement. From the early 1920’s, and especially after 1948, they have claimed Palestine as their own homeland. The result is a position of stalemate resulting in constant pressure, both in Israel and in the Arab countries, where many of the Palestinians have settled. This impasse remains unresolved to this day.

“In the days of these kings”

The belligerent stance the U.S. is taking in the Middle East is supported in principle by most U.N. member nations. But for many of them that support falls short of any real promise of assistance. Some analysts are pointing out that the European community is drawing away from its alliance with the U.S. An essay in “Harper’s Magazine,” January, 1991, highlights this development. The article, “The Gulf Through German Eyes,” was written by W. R. Mead, a fellow at the World Policy Institute. He comments, “Germany’s response to the U.S. is that its commitments in Eastern Europe and the former German Democratic Republic leave it with very little cash to spare, and that these commitments should also be viewed as part of a Western effort.” The U.S. is said to be very disappointed in this lack of support, but, the author says, they “had better brace for new shocks.” More important than the Middle East or “global stability” to Germany and other European na­tions are matters closer to home. Reunification, the threat of chaos in the Soviet Union, and revolutionary change are the problems that are absorbing their interest. It is pointed out that “the interests of Americans and America’s allies will not always coincide in the post-Cold War era.”

This last decade of the century is witnessing developments that are earthshaking. The iron hand of communism has proven itself to be mixed with clay with results that could not be anticipated before 1989. The situation in Russia and eastern Europe continues to be unstable. Just how these circumstances will work themselves out is difficult to say, but there is no question about the final outcome.

Religion in International Affairs

Religion as a factor in international affairs is often under-estimated. It cannot be overlooked in the Middle East, where the role of Islam has to be reckoned with and religion is of considerable importance in the development of affairs in Europe. “Religion and International Affairs” is the title of an article

in the news review, “Current,” July-August, 1990. The writer is Barry Rubin, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. His view is that the modern Western assumption has been that religion would decline in the wake of science and technology. Communism sought to stifle religion with some apparent success, but the picture is changing.

Yet, religion is seen as having a greater strength in the long run than any political persuasion. Its mass appeal, to the chagrin of politicians, continues to assert itself. In particular, Islam and the Catholic Church are seen as wielding powerful influence in the immediate future.

Western observers, the U.S. government in particular, viewed religion in Iran as a weak and declining institution. However, as the Iranian people began to look for a source of identity during a period of turbulent change in the 1960s and 1970s, religion was being reinforced. Islam came to embody the country’s ideals, so that religion and nationalism were merged. The Ayatollah Khomeini’s ideology was an interpretation of Shiite Islam, and he was able to gain control in Iran.

Both Islam and Christianity (as represented by the Orthodox and Roman Catholic systems) have a long history of opportunism. Their reemergence to replace ideologies that were supposed to have replaced them should not be surprising.

Rubin comments that “A sort of limited and imperfect rehearsal of [the future] has been taking place in Poland. There, the Catholic Church and the Catholic-oriented Solidarity trade union, with aid from the Poland-born Pope John Paul II, has forced the Polish government to grant it a major share in decision making. The dramatic changes include the holding of the first free elections in the history of any Communist government.”