Signs of the Times – Part unknown

Turmoil in Eastern Europe

The exodus of East Germans to the west continues, much to the dismay of the government, which has promised reform and issued a plea for patience of the part of the people. No attempt was made, however, to stop the flow by force. On the contrary, restrictions were eased in the hope of breaking the “emigration psychosis” that seemed to be sweeping the country.

In the East German parliament, the first non-unanimous vote in 40 years took place as Egon Krenz was elected head of state in place of the aging hard-line communist leader Erich Honecker. Demonstrations calling for free elections took place in Leipzig and other cities. Top party officials prepared policy statements calling for open elections and a market economy.

In Hungary, reforms were even more drastic as the parliament de­clared the nation a “republic,” eliminating the words “Socialist People’s” from the title. The Hungarian Communist Party changed its name to the Hungarian Socialist Party to give itself a more favorable image to compete in next year’s free parliamentary elections.

In Moscow, the Supreme Soviet voted to abolish the seats traditionally reserved for the Communist Party in national and local elections. Mikhail Gorbachev, on a visit to Finland, announced the removal of four submarines from the Baltic Sea and the pullback of Soviet tactical missiles out of range of northern Europe. He also said that it was not the intention of the Soviet Union to interfere in the events taking place in the Eastern bloc countries.

The urgency of these nations to change their political systems is dictated by the serious condition of the economy. The people are demanding improvements in living conditions but political reforms do not translate into economic improvement overnight. It remains to be seen whether their expectations will prove realistic.

Iranian Leaders Fan Fires of Hatred on Hostage Anniversary

Ten years ago, 52 Americans were seized in the U.S. embassy and held hostage for 444 days. On the tenth anniversary of the storming of the embassy, Iranian radicals held a demonstration to celebrate the event they call a stunning victory over “the Great Satan.” Although the government itself tried to keep the anniversary a low-key event, radical leaders ignored their efforts. For days they whipped up anti-American passions with the presentation on TV of a number of confessions by Iranians accused of spying for the CIA. The actual demonstration, however, drew a lesser crowd than in previous years. Some observers were led to conclude that, among the general population, the Islamic revolution has run its course. The:e appears to be a growing realization that the taking of the embassy was a mistake.

In the five months since the death of the Ayatollah Khomeini, the new president, Ali Akbar Rafsanjani, has been seeking to improve relations with the West. In the opinion of many observers, however, he lacks the power to challenge his hard-line opposition. Hope for an early release of the eight U.S. hostages held by pro-Iranian terrorists in Lebanon has faded along with help from the West for Iran’s failing economy. With oil revenues less than half the level of ten years ago and inflation running at 70% a year, many observers see the economy as critical to the survival of Rafsanjani’s presidency.

With the Soviet Union unable to offer much help, his only hope is for increased assistance from the West. But since the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan and the recent internal unrest in Russia, Iran’s value to the West in Middle-East strategy is greatly diminished. With the Iran-Contra scandal fresh in memory, Washington is understandably reluctant to negotiate until it becomes clear who is in charge.

More Soviet Jews may Immigrate to Israel

Now that the United States has severely restricted the number of Soviet Jews it will accept for immigration, Israel is preparing for increased numbers to go there. At the same time, it is wondering how many of those who have been turned down by the U.S. will actually go to Israel. In the past, Jews with Soviet exit visas bound for Israel could go to Vienna or some other European city and then from there apply for refugee status in the U.S. Now those who want to go to the U.S. must apply directly at the American Embassy in Moscow and refugee status will be granted to only 30,000 in 1990.

Israel is hoping that most of those wishing to leave the Soviet Union will now go to Israel. In the opinion of observers who have spent time among Soviet Jews, the numbers may not be as great as expected. They see persecution or discrimination as a secondary motive among most of those wishing to leave. The primary motive for most, they feel, is economic. They are not activists or Zionists but want to improve their economic condition and escape the privations of Soviet life. They have no interest in Israel from a religious point of view; and from the propaganda they have been hearing about Israel in the Soviet media, it is the last place many would want to go.

Israel has been trying to create a more positive image of Israel in the minds of Soviet Jews. Until recently, the Soviet media has portrayed Israel as a country constantly at war. Since Glasnost, however, they are showing a modern, prosperous and lively country which helps to break down the negative stereotype. Thousands of Soviet tourists are now visiting Israel and taking back accurate information as to conditions there.

Until recently, virtually all applicants for refugee status in the U.S. were accepted without question. Now they have to prove persecution, which most find hard to do. Those who really do want to leave will probably go to Israel or even to some other Western country where there are Jewish communities. Israel has been expecting some 100,000 immigrants over the next three years; but in the absence of more active persecution, the number may be lower.

Arsonists Mar Carmel’s Beauty

A national park in modern Israel, Carmel has been extolled for its beauty since ancient times. Isaiah named it, along with Lebanon and Sharon, as a place whose excellency should be extended to the desert and wilderness in the messianic age (Chap. 35) Elijah confronted the false prophets of Baal there 2800 years ago and Elisha restored to life the son of the S hunam­mite. Last month over 250,000 trees and much wildlife were destroyed by fires that broke out simultaneously at five separate places.

The most serious of many fires started in Israel as part of the intifada (or Palestinian uprising) and raged for two full days in what environmentalists and nature lovers consider some of the most beautiful land in Israel. Although much human effort is being spent to restore the damage it will be up to nature to replace the pine, oak, and pistachio trees, some of which will take up to a century to regrow. The loss of wildlife was thought to be considerable among the foxes, badgers, wild boars, porcupines and birds that inhabited the forest.

Several Palestinian groups claimed responsibility and four suspects were arrested and charged with arson. What the arsonists hoped to achieve is uncertain but if they were trying to advance the cause of the Palestinians, the results will almost certainly play into the hands of the Israeli hard-liners who are against any kind of concessions in the cause of peace.

Moscow Concerned by Israeli Missile Capability

Although the foreign and defense ministries of Israel have denied knowledge of the firing of a 1300 km. (800 mile) range ballistic missile into the Mediterranean between Libya and Greece, the Soviet news agency Tass reported such a firing from the region of Jerusalem. In the past, the Soviet Union has expressed concern about Israel’s ballistic capabilities and reports of development of the Jericho-II missile.

In July 1987, Radio Moscow accused Israel of developing a nuclear-capable missile, reportedly called the Jericho-II. The Soviets called the missile a threat to their security and warned Israel not to continue developing a weapon that they believed was capable of reaching their southern border. At the same time, the Geneva-based international defense review reported at the same time that Israel had successfully fired the missile into the Mediterranean and that it covered 820 kilometers on the test.

Jane’s Defense Weekly reported a second secret test of the Jericho-II surface-to-surface tactical nuclear missile in September, 1988. The magazine said the maximum range of 1500 kms. would make it capable of hitting the capitals of all of Israel’s potential enemies, including Baghdad. Israel has always refused to comment on whether it is developing missiles.

The Jerusalem Post quotes strategic expert Dore Gold as saying that over the past two years the Soviet Union has been increasingly sensitive to the proliferation of missile technology along a belt of countries from Libya to India close to its southern border. Soviet Foreign Minister Edward Shevardnadze was expected to discuss the matter with Israeli Foreign Minister Moshe Arens at a meeting in New York.

World’s Refugee Problem

According to Newsweek magazine, the latest estimates show about 15 million people worldwide have been driven from their homelands by war, civil strife and religious, racial or political persecution. That is double the number of 10 years ago. Most are in Africa and Southwest Asia. Some of the figures are staggering, for example: 3.6 million Afghan refugees in Pakistan and 720,000 Mozambicans displaced to Malawi. Meanwhile, the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees, the agency charged with caring for the world’s dispossessed, is broke. Its executive committee is pleading with donor nations for more money, warning that if funds are not forthcoming, refugees in U.N. camps could die in the tens of thousands.

Most of the refugees would, of course, like to be admitted to the United States, but at a resettlement cost of $7,000 each the nation’s ability to absorb them is severely limited. Due also to budget constraints, funds available to aid the millions of refugees living oversees is inadequate. Relief workers in Malawi are barely a step ahead of local creditors who are threatening to halt food shipments to 720,000 Mozambican refugees there. Malnutrition and scurvy are spreading in refugee camps in Ethiopia and starvation is threatening the 365,000 in Somali camps. As these unfortunate displaced people are without representation in the wealthier nations to apply political pressure on their behalf, their future looks bleak indeed.

Eastern Europe Challenges Soviet Reforms

With thousands of East Germans fleeing to the west and leaving the country in near chaos and with independence movements under way in the Baltic states, the Ukraine and Armenia, the question many observers are asking is whether the reforms that have been instituted in the Soviet Union and its satellite nations will be able to survive. Some have noted the police state machinery with which the Soviet Union was ruled before Gorbachev is still in place and could be reactivated at any time. Soviet troops are still stationed in large numbers in the satellite countries.

The course of history changes rapidly these days. Who would have predicted a year ago that 30,000 East Germans would have made their way to West Germany through Hungary, Poland and Czechoslovakia? In the past, West Germany has contributed to the survival of the communist regime in East Germany by making economic concessions to effect the release of political prisoners to the west. Some observers wonder whether similar concessions may have led to the latest release. Will the present situation lead to a crisis in East Germany that could cause the Soviets to react with the 400,000 troops stationed there? Only time will tell, but events in Eastern Europe bear watching because it is the region prophecy suggests will reunify with western Europe and develop a hostile power which will challenge the authority of Christ in Jerusalem.