We are sure the readers of the Tidings will recognize the problem of endeavoring to write articles on the signs of the times that will not be, to some extent repetitious As the months go by we observe that there is a continual ebb and flow in military and diplomatic activity throughout the world The international scene changes so rapidly that an obscure news item which seems to have little importance on a particular day becomes an earth-shaking crisis on the next The people of the world have reached the point where they grasp at every straw of encouraging news with the same desperation that a drowning man seeks to seize anything that floats
This month to month see-saw makes it difficult to specifically analyze current events and fit them into the prophetic picture Nevertheless, the Bible student will recognize this very condition of flux and confusion as a significant sign in connection with the coming of Christ An interesting and helpful alternative to the King James’ translation of the Mt Olivet prophecy in Luke 21 25,26 reads “On earth nations will stand helpless, not knowing which way to turn from the roar and surge of the sea” (New English Bible)—men’s hearts will be dried up with fear, as they await the troubles that are overtaking the entire world (Knox)
The subject matter of this article will deal with one factor in this condition of world wide perplexity (“not knowing which way to turn”) that we feel will not be subject to change on a day to day basis You will notice that Jesus speaks in his prophecy about “troubles that will overtake the whole world” and while our interest as Bible students centers on the Middle East our subject will also confirm the universal aspects of the Master’s words
It seems almost incredible that a single industrial commodity could affect and alter the life style of people all over the civilized world Yet the little word oil has such tremendous significance in diplomatic circles that it can change governmental policies, and in extreme cases, break industrial giants among the nations. The political and economic power potential invested in oil is pointedly summed up by an Arab leader when he said “Soon all the Arabs will be riding in Cadillac’s and the rest of the world will be riding on camels.”
Shortages in basic raw materials is one of the signs of the times that contributes to the “distress of nations, with perplexity.” The present oil crisis is perhaps the most graphic illustration of the chaos and suffering that can be created by the political manipulation of an essential commodity.
The following information is compiled from excerpts taken from columns and articles written by a number of political and economic analysts for the various news media. First of all let us, in retrospect observe the effects of oil price manipulation by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in 1974. The effects of shortages and higher prices has been felt in varying degrees throughout the entire world, but the highly industrialized nations were particularly vulnerable and hard hit. The past year was a grim demonstration of one of the facts of life in modern society—oil is the lifeblood of our civilization. Without it many vital areas in our complex way of life would stagnate and die. When we ponder this we see what a powerful weapon the Arabs hold over the heads of the nations of the world. A weapon that can be turned in many directions to bring pressure to bear to gain their political and economic objectives.
In 1974 a great political and economic upheaval swept across Europe. Britain lives on borrowed money with trade deficits, inflation, unemployment and bankruptcies rising. France, like Britain, is in a critical financial strait and is plagued with labor troubles and unemployment. President Giscard promised his country sweeping reforms but inflation brought widespread social unrest. West Germany, the most prosperous of Europe’s nations, is having difficulty selling her products in the export market and has had to drastically cut back her manufacturing production, with wide spread unemployment as the result . . . Japan, the leading industrial power of Asia, faces the probability that her huge versatile business empire will be unable to continue its phenomenal growth. Inflation, production cut backs, unemployment—and the rising cost of oil has, as elsewhere, taken its toll.
While the United States is not dependent on Arab oil to the same extent as Japan and the European nations, there is no doubt that its economy has been severely hurt by export cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. When a basic commodity like oil is in short supply, or only obtainable at inflated prices, the effect is felt throughout the entire business and domestic system. Energy is the base from which everything is produced. When the raw materials which produce energy rise in price it is inevitable that we must expect to pay more for our food, clothing, heat, homes, transportation, and every other commodity which supports our life-style. When production costs become so high the consumer can no longer afford to buy the product, the result will be cut-backs, unemployment, bankruptcies, suffering and deprivation. Our Government in its “perplexity” is desperately seeking ways to reverse the plunge into depression while millions “with hearts dried up with fear, await the troubles that are overtaking the whole world”.
Oil has been called black gold. It is not only wealth but it is also a weapon, a weapon that can be applied to strangle through economic pressure or by financing open warfare. It can also be used as a diplomatic lever to pry allies apart by favoring some nations and denying others. The power to manipulate the world money market and the political affairs of many nations is almost beyond belief. Can you imagine having so much wealth that it becomes a dilemma? The following excerpt from an editorial in the New York Times points this up: “The economic and financial problem posed by the Middle East is already of such gigantic proportion that even if an Arab-Israeli conflict is avoided in 1975 the distortion of world affairs produced by this new factor cannot help but be enormous. In 1985—that is to say in another decade—the estimated oil revenues of the Arab petroleum states will be $1,300,000,000,000 (Editor’s note: this figure is not a misprint).
There just isn’t any sensible and comprehensive plan to deal with this titanic sum. For example, last July, Saudi Arabia approved by far its largest budget in history including sizable defense expenditures, very large education funds and an extremely generous foreign aid program. Yet, Finance Ministry experts discovered they still had $7,000,000,000 left over that they could not deal with in their budget. Despite this, Saudi Arabia has the fourth largest monetary reserves in the world today, coming just after West Germany, the United States and Japan.
Some very well educated and original minded Arabs, like the Saudi Oil Minister, Sheik Ahmed Zaki Yamani, have devised novel ways of putting these funds to work: as for example, buying fresh water in Japan and shipping it to the Arabian desert by super tankers. But the problem presented transcends such imaginative but piecemeal solutions.
Western countries (and especially the United States) are deeply concerned about Arab efforts to buy equity and a share in the management of key ordinance (or defense related) firms. Iran (which of course is not Arab) bought a large share of the German Krupp firm and has shown an interest in a possible acquisition of shares in U. S. Gruman Aircraft.
Now there are increasing efforts by the United States to prevent such foreign purchases in concerns vital to defense. Nevertheless, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, Arthur Burns, believes there are many types of companies, from breakfast foods to soft drinks, which would welcome Middle East investment.
In spite of tremendous investments in many parts of the world the oil producing nations will be flooded with funds in a very short time. Already they are buying up expensive European and U. S. real estate. What will the monetary flood engulf next? What can the relatively poor industrial West ultimately do to protect itself?
The writer sees a rather grimly humorous O. Henry style twist to the end of this editorial as we read: Within ten years, at least some Western lands may consider expropriations of vast Middle East owned properties, bought with the profits of petroleum, just as the Middle East area itself expropriated Western ownership of oil wells. What was once sauce for the goose may yet prove sauce for the gander. But in the backroom of Washington there is little humor in this situation and alarmed policy makers are calling for a showdown with the oil producing countries before it is too late. They want President Ford to serve notice upon the oil potentates that present oil prices are ruining the Western world and, therefore, constitute hostile action.
The following statement has an ominous ring. If a peaceful settlement cannot be reached, they believe military action will become inevitable. They don’t see how the United States can stand by helplessly while the Western world is plunged into economic and political chaos. The strategists are now preparing their arguments to present to President Ford. They have the ear of powerful Congressional leaders who have agreed to join them in urging the President to press forcefully for an oil price reduction.
Surely we can see the application of Jesus’ words “On earth, nations will stand helpless, not knowing which way to turn from the roar and surge of the sea” as we read, the oil squeeze has thrown the Atlantic alliance into disarray. America’s allies are suddenly more eager to cooperate with their Arab oil suppliers than with Washington. There has been muttering inside the NATO policy councils against U. S. moves in the Middle East (And now we see a statement with true prophetic significance). “If the United States should side with Israel in a new Middle East conflict, the allies would close their bases to the United States and the thirty year postwar Western Alliance would break apart.”
The United States is the last and only real friend that Israel has in the world today. Even the United Nations Organization is coming under heavy Arab influence as nervous nations seek to placate the oil sheikhs. Already the Arabs have been able to punish Israel. For example, the United Nations’ cultural arm, UNESCO, arbitrarily cut off aid to Israel and barred Israel from participating in its meetings. Intelligence reports warn that the Arab states are preparing to play a leading role, both financially and politically in the world organization by their control of the oil valves. In other words, the petroleum powers have begun the peaceful conquest of the Western world. The backroom strategists will tell President Ford this is intolerable.
Where do God’s people stand at this fateful hour in history when “the nations stand helpless, not knowing which way to turn from the roar and surge of the sea” They stand as they have in the past—in the world, but not of the world, subject to the social, economic and political conditions which they know were prophetically foretold. As we observe the result of human depravity and mis-management we grieve for those that suffer, but we also rejoice that the end of that which causes suffering is in sight. We are comforted by the Master’s words “when these things begin to come to pass, then look up, and lift up your heads; for your redemption draweth nigh.”
Have faith in God and take courage from these words of the scripture:
God is our refuge and strength, a very present help in trouble. Psalm 46:1
I have been young, and now am old, yet have I not seen the righteous forsaken, nor his seed begging bread. Psalm 37:25
Fear not, little flock; for it is your Father’s good pleasure to give you the kingdom. Luke 12:32
The Origin of the Organic World – Part One