Signs of the Times – Part unknown

Draft Protesters Convicted

Guilty verdicts were returned by juries in the first two draft non-registration cases to be prosecuted by the U S government After numerous warnings and a lengthy grace period an estimated 527,000 young men have refused to register as required by law The Selective Service System administrators hope that a few well publicized prosecutions together with two warning letters to each non-registrant will increase the compliance rate from the present 93 percent to 98 percent In an effort to avoid exploitation of the publicity by other pacifist groups such as antinuclear organizations, the government carefully selected cases to prosecute

In the cases brought to trial the defendants readily admitted failure to reg­ister but claimed vague but firmly be­lieved religious reasons for disobedience of the law The juries apparently rejected this excuse and polls of the general public indicated agreement with the verdicts, although many felt the defendants had a right to make this form of protest if they were willing to accept the penalty for breaking the law Christadelphians avoid participation in this form of protest for the same reasons they avoid other types of political activity

Although many government leaders advocate compulsory national service, congress has not passed legislation as yet For the time being the volunteer armed services are receiving an adequate number of recruits due to pay increases and a high unemployment rate making these jobs more attractive This does not mean that the Selective Service System has been inactive Plans have been carefully drawn up for rapid mobilization of the nation’s manpower resources if international conditions require it Plans for Alternate Service for conscientious objectors have also been carefully detailed, ready to be implemented on short notice Computers are being prepared so that Alternate Service job assignments may be made quickly and efficiently in the event of a national emergency

In view of this preparation and the highly volatile international situation, it is important for those 18 through 26 years of age to be prepared to state their case in defense of their beliefs.

A Confrontation in Africa

While the war in Lebanon has been taking over the front pages of the newspapers a bitter four year old war has been increasing in intensity with very little attention from the press. Soviet backed Ethiopia with help from Libya and over 13,000 Cuban troops has opened up an offensive against U.S. backed Somalia. Some observers think the Soviets may be trying to win back some of the prestige they lost in the defeat of their client states, Syria and the PLO in Lebanon.

U.S. interest in Somalia stems from its strategic location in the so called Horn of Africa. In return for U.S. aid Somalia President Siad has allowed the U.S. access to the port of Berbera on the Gulf of Eden near the entrance to the Red Sea. Although the authoritarian socialist Siad is not the type of ally the U.S. is most comfortable with, the importance of keeping this part of Africa from complete Soviet domination has caused the U.S. to speed up delivery of arms already approved under a modest $20 million aid program, much less than Siad would like to have. The U.S. has restricted supplying arms to Somalia because of the expansionist tendencies of Siad which threaten western oriented Kenya and Djibouti as well as the Ethiopian Ogaden region. The bal­ance sought by the U.S. is to give Siad just enough aid to adequately defend Somalia without having him escalate the war into a superpower confrontation.

Mexican Economic Crisis

The economic crisis in Mexico has had an unexpected side effect that may have an effect on U.S. policy in the Middle East. When the Arab oil embargo was applied in 1973 the U.S. was caught by surprise and the resulting fuel shortages were nearly catastrophic. The U.S. government decided to build a “strategic reserve” of oil in Louisiana salt domes to avoid Arab blackmail in the future. Saudi Arabia, however, by manipulating its oil production has been able to keep the U.S. from having enough surplus oil to fill the reserve, thus maintaining political influence. When Saudi Arabia in 1978 agreed to increase oil production to make up for lost production from Iran, it was understood that none of the increase was to go into the reserve.

Now the situation has changed. Mexico no longer has the luxury of limiting the amount of oil sold to the U.S. because the income is sorely needed to service the huge foreign debt. Mexico has now replaced Saudi Arabia as the largest supplier of foreign oil to the United States. At a price over $1 per barrel below the world price most of the increased supply is going into the reserve. With the U.S. becoming less dependent on Middle East oil a much more independent policy becomes feasible.

A New Peace Plan for the Middle East

Just after the last of the PLO guerrillas had left Beirut, Lebanon, U.S. President Ronald Reagan went on television to announce a set of proposals he hopes will get the peace process moving again in the Middle East. His Proposals include self rule for the Palestinians but not an independent state, Jordanian rule on the West Bank and Gaza, and a freeze on new Israeli settlement in these areas.

To Israel he pledged an “ironclad” commitment to that country’s security and he insisted that all Arab states must accept the reality of Israel and acknowledge the Jewish state’s right to exist in peace.

The Israeli Cabinet in emergency session flatly rejected the proposals and to show its disdain ordered 11 new settlements in the occupied territories. The Arabs were slower to act officially but Egypt. Jordan, and Saudi Arabia made favorable comments on the plan. The Reagan administration has long been accused of drifting along without a Middle East policy but this speech is seen by observers as an attempt to take the initiative toward peace.

Israel’s rejection of the plan was expected by the administration since in several respects it clashes with declared policy of the Begin government. Sentiment among Begin’s ministers is strong for annexation of the West Bank territory and Begin himself has vowed that no territory within the ancient Biblical boundaries of Israel will be voluntarily relinquished. President Reagan has shown phenominal success in putting through domestic programs in which he strongly believes, and it remains to be seen if this success will extend to Middle East problems that for 34 years have defied the best efforts of world leaders to reach a solution.

Israel’s War with the PLO

The long expected Israeli offensive against the PLO in Lebanon, began early in June Ostensibly in retaliation for an attack by terrorists on Israel s ambassador in London, Israeli armed forces invaded Lebanon and quickly occupied the southern part of the country

When the original 25 mile objective was so quickly reached a decision was reached to press northward along the coast to join Christian Phalangist forces in an attack on the PLO headquarters in West Beirut When Syrian forces challenged the Israelis the air force in a spectacular strike destroyed the Syrian SAM-6 missile batteries that received so much publicity when the Soviets installed them a year and a half ago After severe losses in the air and on the ground Syria accepted a cease fire proposed by U S envoy Philip Habib

The objective of the Israeli military action was to remove the PLO military presence from Lebanon where some six thousand guerrillas have been in a position to terrorize Israel To spare the bloodshed and destruction that would result from a direct assault on the West Beirut stronghold of the PLO, Israel blockaded that part of the city and waited for a negotiated evacuation of the armed guerrillas

Through all of this the Soviet Union has made no move to intervene directly although Soivet forces in the area are said to have been on alert Apart from Syria the Arab states have been either unable or unwilling to become involved Some observers think the moderate gulf emirates would become a stable government in Lebanon and hope that such will emerge from the present conflict Under such a government the PLO would almost surely be stripped of its weapons and permitted only a political role if indeed it is allowed to remain at all

Although the Arab states have been quite vocal in support of the PLO, none of them want the heavily armed radical Palestinians within their borders. In 1970 Jordan expelled them and in the 1975-76 Lebanese civil war Syrian forces clashed with the guerrillas in Lebanon. There are already many Palestinians in camps in Syria, and Syria has refused to take any more. The conservative Arab oil states would no doubt finance the rearming of the PLO but none are likely to welcome them to their territory.

Egyptian President Hosni Mebarak in an effort to demonstrate his support for Arab unity has offered the Palestinians a base for a government in exile but the stringent control that would be maintained would almost surely reduce the PLO to a purely political role. Libya has offered to help but distance from Israel would render PLO terrorist activities against Israel more difficult. If the PLO cannot find an acceptable place to go Israel may feel compelled to attack the guerrillas at a high price in death and destruction. No doubt by the time this is in print the problem will have been resolved.

Israeli Defense Minister Ariel Sharon’s objective has been stated to be the elimination of the PLO as a military force in Lebanon. He told the Knesset, “If we stand firm in our demands we shall create a triangle of peace—Israel, Egypt and Lebanon — with open borders from Bei­rut via Jerusalem to Cairo. I believe we’re on the brink of a new era.” If the minister’s predictions are correct perhaps it will be part of the fulfillment of Ezek. 38:8-15 where a people dwelling securely in the land is envisioned as the prelude to Gog’s invasion of the Land.

Versailles Summit

In early June the leaders of seven western industrial nations, Britain, Canada, France, West Germany, Italy, Japan and the U.S., met at the Palace of Versailles near Paris to discuss economic matters of mutual interest. The delegates exchanged views on subjects as diverse as U.S. interest rates and how to best assist the developing nations.

One thing that became very clear was the increasing differences between the l. .S. and the European allies on the seriousness of the menace of the Soviet Union. Against Ronald Reagan’s demand for tighter credit and less trade with the Soviets, the other leaders vigorously defended normal trade relations.

A particularly difficult point is the U.S. refusal to allow U.S. companies to supply equipment for the Soviet gas pipeline to Western Europe. The U.S. fears that the pipeline will create an energy dependency which the Soviet may exploit in future years. The Europeans are drawn to the deal not only for the fuel it will supply but also for the boost to the economy and new jobs that the construction itself will bring. One of the two 3600 mile long pipelines is already under construction and is expected to be completed in 2 years. The second will not be started until the first one is flowing. It is the second line that Reagan would like to stop. The issue has left the U.S. virtually isolated with even Britain, usually the closest ally of the U.S., taking the European position.

OPEC in Disarray

Control by OPEC over world oil prices and productions appears to be slipping. At an emergency meeting in Vienna last March the oil ministers faced with a world wide oil glut imposed production ceilings for the first time in the cartel’s 22-year history. To bolster the price to $34 per barrel it was agreed to cut production more than 10 percent to 17.5 million barrels per day. Not all member na­tions have held to their ceilings however. Iran with a war to pay for has over produced by nearly a million barrels a day and cut prices to sell the overproduction. Nigeria and Algeria have also been ignoring the quotas. Early in July the ministers called another emergency meeting to decide whether to realign the quotas or to raise the ceiling to the current production level of 18.2 million barrels a day. After two days of discussion it was decided to leave the production ceiling at 17.5 but the meeting adjourned without agreement on what to do about the members that ignore quotas or cut prices.

Many economists maintain that such arbitrary controls must eventually break under falling demand. World consumption of oil has fallen drastically in recent years due to conservation encouraged by the huge price increases of the late 1970’s. With OPEC’s production only 60 percent of what it was in 1979 the poorer members of the alliance are feeling the pinch of the reduced revenues. Reduced cash flows although hurting the poorer nations also cuts down on arms spending and aid to Arab causes such as the PLO.

Pope Visits Britain

After nearly two years of preparation, Pope John Paul II made his historic visit to Britain. Despite all the elaborate planning the trip was nearly canceled at the last moment because of the fighting in the Falkland Islands. The issue was defused however by the announcement that the pope would visit Argentina shortly after returning from Britain. During the six day visit, the Pope often spoke of the war and his hopes for peace but was scrupulously careful to avoid taking sides. He met for half an hour with Queen Elizabeth II, temporary head of the Church of England, the first time a Pope had been received by a British monarch. The carefully planned diplomacy of the visit called for him to avoid meeting with government political leaders. The crowds were said to be smaller than those usually encountered on Papal travels and some anti-Papal demonstrators carried signs with slogans such as “Jesus saves, Rome enslaves” and “Pope John, the Antichrist.” At Canterbury Cathedral the seat of the Anglican Church, the Pope was cordially received by the Archbishop of Canterbury. At an ecumenical service which by mutual agreement did not include the Holy Communion the two church leaders renewed baptismal vows together, recited the Apostles Creed and knelt together in prayer. After the service announcement was made of the establishing of a new international commission to examine doctrinal differences and recommend practical steps to be taken toward “restoration of full communion” between Rome and Canterbury.

Israel Withdraws From the Sinai

With the traumatic evacuation of the last Israeli settlers from the Sinai, Israel completed on schedule the return to Egypt of the third and last portion of Egyptian territory captured in the 1967 war The peace process that began with the historic 1977 visit of then President Anwar Sadat to Israel has achieved its major goal for Egypt and the question many observers are asking is whether Egypt and Israel can be persuaded to continue to negotiate a solution to the Pales­tininan question, a much more difficult issue than has been faced so far

Egypt is being urged by other Arab nations to return to the Arab fold now that the Sinai has been returned Economic and social problems in Egypt would make such a move attractive even though American economic and military aid is being given for the purpose of helping Egypt to remain independent of the wealthier Arab States American policy is being directed toward persuading Egypt, Israel and the moderate Arab states to subordinate their differences to a united strategy against Soviet penetration of the area

The Palestinian question is the main stumbling block to Middle East peace but little hope is held out for a breakthrough in this area Israel s position appears to tend more and more toward annexation of the West Bank and Gaza strip At the opening summer session of the Knesset, Prime Minister Begin told Parliament that Israel plans to annex the West Bank and Gaza Strip after a self-rule plan for the 1 2 million Palestinians living there is established Under the Camp David accord a five year period of autonomy is envisioned after which the future sovereignty of the West Bank and Gaza will be settled through negotiation Begin is setting forth Israel s claim to this future sovereignty He pledged that under this sovereignty full autonomy for the Arab inhabitants will be maintained This interpretation of autonomy for the Palestin­ians is sure to clash with that of the PLO and other Arab states and it remains to be seen whether grounds for negotiation can be established.

The final evacuation of the Israeli settlements in the Sinai were such traumatic events for Israel that Prime Minister Begin pledged that Israel will never uproot any more Jewish settlements in Arab occupied territory. With many new settlements being planned for the West Bank, this too will no doubt be a debatable issue in future negotiation.

Falkland Crisis

A few weeks ago not many people could have given the location of the Falk­land Islands if asked let alone have guessed that a major war would erupt over them. As so often happens in world politics a seemingly insignificant occurrence begins a train of events that escalates to a world wide crisis. An imprudent act of military aggression by an impulsive dictator in an attempt to divert attention from his nation’s economic woes has had international repercussions that may change the course of world history.

When Argentine President Galtieri ordered his troops to invade the lightly defended Falkland Islands he evidently failed to correctly assess the resolve of the British government. With the lessons of Hitler still in mind the British realized that costly as it is to fight a war it may be much more costly in the long run to let a dictator reap the fruits of aggression. A formidable force was therefore dispatched to the Islands hopeful that the show of force might cause the Argentinians to back down.

The United States administration found itself caught between loyalty to its closest ally and the interests of western hemis­phere diplomacy. After a fruitless effort at mediation the U.S. came out firmly on the side of Britain, upsetting much care­fully planned cooperation with Argentina on hemisphere probelms.

Soviets Stand to Gain

The Soviet Union is reported to be getting involved also. Argentina is a major trading partner with over 75 percent of Argentina’s grain exports going to the Soviet Union. When U.S. President Jimmy Carter applied a grain embargo in response to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan Argentina stepped in to fill the gap. For Argentina it was a matter of gaining income for its troubled economy but for the Soviets obtaining food for its people is a serious problem.

The Soviet Union is reported to be furnishing satellite information to Argentina just as the U.S. is to Britain. The Soviet Union has also made a number of statements supportive of Argentina’s position. The paradox of the world’s most powerful communist nation allied with one of South America’s most anti-communist dictatorships is to be explained by the potential the crisis has for destabilizing other areas of the world. The British fleet is the major portion of the naval arm of NATO and with this fleet occupied in the South Atlantic a serious gap exists in NATO’s defence of Europe.

Some observers see a number of other trouble spots in Central and South America that could erupt while the world is preoccupied with this crisis. Guatemala covets the former British colony of Belize, Venezuela has a border dispute with Guyana, and Chile has been at odds with Argentina over several border areas.

As the conflict escalates to a shooting war it appears that the longer the conflict continues the greater the chances that a serious world conflict may be ignited.

Poison Gas Experimentation

Several times in the past the Soviets have been accused of using poison gas in Afganistan but now this charge has been expanded to include experimentation on humans. U.S. analysts cite evidence that after illicit chemical attacks on mujaheddin rebels Soviet researchers have been seen gathering soil and vegetation samples for tests. There are also reports that captured victims have been given experimental antidotes for the aerially applied poison.

The United States plans to raise the issue at the United Nations General assembly and to press for stronger conventions against chemical and biological warfare.

Nuclear–Freeze Movement Grows

A Characteristic of the time of the end according to the prophetic words of Jesus is “men’s hearts failing them for fear and for looking after those things which are coming on the earth.” (Luke 21:26). According to a recent poll by the Gallup Organization 68 percent of Americans are concerned about the chances of nuclear war. A reflection of this concern is the ground swell of anti-nuclear sentiment developing in the United States. On a recent weekend over a million people across the country took to the streets in demonstrations against the nuclear buildup proposed by the administration. So successful was Ground Zero Week that the message is being seriously considered by administration officials.

The issue that has given the movement its recent impetus is the proposal to spend 240 billion dollars in the next 5 years to bring the U.S. nuclear arsenal and delivery systems up to par with the Soviet’s. Also at issue is emergency planning based on the premise that limited nuclear war is survivable. What the activists are proposing is not unilateral disarmament but a verifiable freeze on nuclear armaments by both sides. Proponents of the freeze plan an educational and organizational campaign leading up to and beyond the U.N. disarmament meeting in June. The success of the movement so far has spurred increased activity in the U.S. Congress and Administration to come up with a politically acceptable plan for arms control.