Signs of the Times – Part unknown

Last month, we looked at the reemergence of a new, powerful Germany and examined emerging links between Russia and Germany. This month we will take the analysis further and consider Germany’s economic influence and the ties that are developing between Germany and nations in the Middle East. In addition, we will consider prophetic passages that deal with Germany.

German influence

The February 15, 1992 Economist reports that, at present, Germany has its greatest world impact in the area of trade, rather than in political or military matters. “Whenever the reunited Germans assert themselves, as they have over Croatia or the level of interest rates, they are called bullies. Whenever they hold their peace, as they did over Iraq, they are called wimps. It seems they cannot win. But there is one thing on which Germany can fire its diplomatic Big Bertha without worry — the Uruguay round of GATT (General Agreement on Tariff and Trade).”

The magazine refers to Helm ut Kohl, chancellor of Germany, as “Mr. GATT.” During 1992, Germany will chair meetings of the seven top industrial countries and in July will host the annual summit in Munich. This contributes to Kohl’s being called “Mr. GATT’ but is by no means the whole story. Germany is rapidly increasing its influence in the arena of world trade.

The Economist indicates that “Mr. Kohl has both the motive and the clout” to influence world trade. Just eighteen months after unification, Germany is emerging as a major trading partner with important nations. In addition, Germany is attempting to expand its financial position by having its national companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange. The New York Times reported that “Rudiger Von Rosen, the executive vice chairman of the Federation of German Stock Exchanges, was in New York pushing the case for direct listing of German stocks on exchanges in the United States” (April 26, 1992). The article went on to say that this is a German attempt to secure globalization of their markets.

At the moment, Germany is struggling to absorb the former East Germany into its society. As it does so, however, it lays the groundwork for access into all of Eastern Europe. As the Economist (May 2, 1992) notes, “The rest of the world should pay attention to this new German question. So much depends on this sickly giant. East Europeans and the former Soviet republics look to it as their main partner in aid and trade. West Europeans rely on it as the anchor of the European exchange-rate mechanism (ERM). Efforts to implement the Maastricht treaty on economic and monetary union are unlikely to succeed if Germany’s commitment to that union weakens.”

Germany-Iran

“Since the end of the Teheran International Trade Fair in October (1991), Iran has stepped up efforts to broaden its commercial links with over a dozen European and Asian nations. This includes Germany, which now ranks as Iran’s largest trading partner, having traded materials totaling DM5.3bn ($3.2 billion US) in 1990” (Middle East Magazine, December, 1991).

Germany is gaining an economic foothold in Iran (ancient Persia) but that is only the tip of the iceberg. Germany ranks in the top two of import and export trade with Iran, Ethiopia, Sudan, Libya and Russia.

Prior to unification in October, 1990, East and West Germany had separate trade. East Germany traded primarily with the Soviet block and the Middle Eastern nations. Since unification, Germany has concentrated on enhancing its trade position. The nations that have responded to this initiative are the nations just mentioned and former Eastern block countries. A secular analyst might call it coincidence. A Bible student would call it divine providence.

The future for increased trade and closer ties between Germany and these countries looks promising. Considered by itself, West German “exports to these nations collectively (including the ex-Soviet Union) amounted to only about as much as it did to Austria. But when German leaders look a decade or so ahead their eyes gleam. According to a recent poll, more than half of Germany’s top managers and politicians reckon that in the long term there will be bigger business opportunities looking east rather than with the west” (Economist, February 29, 1992).

Pioneer writings

In the years and months to come, this redevelopment of a strong Germany could fulfill two prophecies. The first is Ezekiel 38 and the second is in Revelation 17. Bro. John Thomas wrote in Elpis Israel that Ezekiel 38 was directed against Germany as well as Russia. “Son of Man, set thy face against Gogue, the Emperor of Germany, Hungary, etc. and Autocrat of Russia, Moscovy, and Tobolski, and prophesy against him, and say. Thus saith the Lord…”

When commenting on Revelation chapters 13 and 17 in Eureka, Bro. Thomas draws a comparison between the Holy Roman Empire and the German Empire. He writes, “The history of the Holy Roman Empire or German Empire is the history of the beast of the earth with two horns like a lamb, and speaking as a dragon” (Vol. iv, pg. 357).

As we compare such ideas with the events at hand, we cannot help but be excited that the return of our Lord Jesus Christ must be close. Revelation 17:14 describes the beast waging and losing a battle with Christ We look forward to that event and earnestly pray that it might come quickly.

“The new unified Germany is beginning to exercise authority and control over eastern Europe and in particular Russia. In this regard, a unified Germany has the potential to extend their political policies over the former Eastern bloc more than any other nation in the world” (paraphrased from the New York Times, March 1, 1992).

The above reflects a concern of the American government that is being heard with increasing frequency. A superficial reader of America’s concern might conclude that here is one superpower worrying about the potential development of a second superpower. Or the cynic might surmise that since the cold war is now officially over, defense contractors are pushing the point to entice the pentagon into further arms development so that some defense jobs might be saved. Or perhaps Washington is truly frightened that a strong Germany could not only dominate the policies of Europe but could also rule over a cash-poor, asset-rich Russia.

The true significance of this development, however, is revealed when we reflect on the sure word of prophecy. Brother John Thomas indicated that a powerful Germany must arise before Christ’s appearance to the nations.

Elpis Israel

In Elpis Israel (p.432), Bro. Thomas writes that “Gogue of the land of Ma­gogue signifies the Emperor of Germany, and that the particular emperor referred to will also be the prince of Ros, Mosc, and Tobl — that is, that at some time hereafter, and that not far off, a Czar of Russia will be both Emperor of Germany and Autocrat of All the Russians.”

Financial Commitments

Interestingly, the political alignments described by Bro. Thomas nearly 150 years ago are taking shape before our eyes. In April, 1992, the western world arranged for loans to Russia totaling $24 billion. Of this amount, the government in Bonn was responsible for fully one-half with other western powers making up the difference.

The Economist for January 8, 1992 reported that “Germany has pledged more than $40 billion in all sorts of aid to the former Soviet Union, much of it as ransom for German unification.” When the recently committed $12 billion is added in, Germany has now committed $52 billion to Russia since the start of the new year.

Is altruism the major factor motivating Germany to offer this assistance? Hardly. An article in the March 8, 1992 New York Times helps shed light on Germany’s motives. “…large chunks of eastern Germany’s wounded economy still depend on contracts from further east. In addition, control of Soviet mili­tary and civilian nuclear programs is a matter high on Helmut Kohl’s agenda.” Additional insight is provided by a report in Time, April 13, 1992: “By contributing about 70% of all assistance pledged by the industrialized world to the new entities rising from the wreckage of the old Soviet Union, Germany has emerged as the point nation for managing the economic development of the Commonwealth of Independent States. The same holds for the rest of the East bloc, where German business is overwhelmingly in front. ‘The more the East is emptied of Soviet power, the more it is being replaced by Germany’s,’ observes French historian Georges Valance.”

Whatever the momentary motivation, Bible students watch with interest for German domination of “Ros, Mosc, and Tobl.”

Linguistic inroads

The German influence is not merely financial. Germany has also been making linguistic inroads in Eastern Europe. The February 22, 1992 New York Times reports that “In recent decades, when much of Central and Eastern Europe was under Soviet domination, school children were required to learn Russian. Now German has become more popular. A 1989 survey showed that 30% of high school students in Poland, 40% in Czechoslovakia and 50% in the Baltic and Russian nations are now learning German.”

German Chancellor Helmut Kohl, who speaks neither English nor French, recently remarked, “Whether one likes to hear it or not, it (German) is now the most widely spoken language in the European Community” (Time April 13, 1992). The article went on to comment, “While that (Kohl’s remark) may be a slight exaggeration, what the Germans call their Sprachraum (linguistic space) does include more than 100 million people in Germany and in potential E.C. members Austria and Switzerland, plus millions more in Eastern Europe whose main second language is German.”

Diplomatic impact

The New York Times (March 1,1992) again reports that, “Germany has agreed to mediate between Japan and Russia on a long-standing territorial dispute that has until now blocked large-scale Japanese aid for the former Soviet Union.” The dispute involves a series of small islands in the North Pacific. The islands were taken over by Russia after the end of the second world war and have remained a diplomatic barrier between the two nations. If all goes according to plan, a settlement will be reached by September of this year.

Fear of the unpredictable

As the unified Germany becomes stronger and more involved in the affairs of the east, the world looks on, constantly wondering what these changes will mean. And they hope this is not the beginning of another shift in world power. The New York Times (March 8, 1992) reports on this uncertainty: “the official line of the German government is that, given time, Bonn will indoctrinate the east and swing them to the views that have made western Germans loyal members of the West for nearly half a century. But with the cold war over and the American role in Europe increasingly uncertain, Germany is bound to develop in unpredictable ways.”

As Bible students, we realize Germany will not continue to develop in “unpredictable ways.” The new Germany will grow in a manner predicted by the scriptures. The changes that are taking place today are nothing more than the hand of God at work in the affairs of nations.

The pieces of the puzzle are being put into place in accordance with the plan laid out long ago, a plan that culminates with the rule of the Lord Jesus over all nations. Let us continue to watch and pray that that day might come quickly.