On July 1, 1995, the Russian government averted yet another political showdown when her Parliament failed to muster the necessary two-thirds majority required to dismiss the government led by President Boris Yeltsin. This was the third no-confidence vote in as many years that the Yeltsin government has survived. As reported in the New York Times, July 2, ’95, the cost of survival was great: “On June 10, ’95, Mr. Yeltsin accepted the resignation of three ministers associated with the Chechen war and the botched operation to free hostages taken by Chechens.”
It appears the Yeltsin government is like a cat with nine lives. So far the government had survived votes of no-confidence, the Chechen war, civil strife, increasing crime, military cutbacks and the demise of the Russian ruble. Yet, the government manages to narrowly survive while looking down the barrel of yet another menacing threat in the reduction of food production over the past few years. So bleak is the outlook of food production that Russia’s Federal Security Service had blocked publication of the weather service’s forecasts for the country’s 1995 harvest.
Limiting imports with dwindling production
The government is under pressure on a number of fronts with respect to food policy. On the one hand, the agricultural lobby has pressed the government into imposing restrictions on certain food imports. As a concession to these demands, new import tariffs were announced on foodstuffs as of July, ’95. Tariffs were placed on meat and dairy products (15%), 20% on butter and 25% on refined sugar.
An article in the June 12, ’95 Toronto Globe and Mail reported on the political dilemma. “The new tariffs have provoked a storm of protest from the major cities, which now depend heavily on food imports, yet are insufficient to pacify the agricultural lobby. The prospect of a failed 1995 harvest raises further doubts about the wisdom of the government’s efforts to limit food imports.”
Wheat, rye and sugar beet production decline
The basic staples of Russian farming, wheat, rye and beet production, have declined sharply over the last several years. During 1990-93, wheat production averaged 43 million tons per year. The sowing of winter grains has fallen sharply since 1993 due to the slow pace of the recent harvests brought on by shortages in fuel and agricultural equipment and in some cases by dry weather.
This year wheat production is likely to be 33 million tons and rye crops likely to be about five million tons, down from six million in 1994. This would make 1995 the worst harvest since 1981. If weather conditions over the summer and early autumn are unfavorable, the final outcome could be even worse.
The same bleak picture prevails for sugar beets. Despite increasing the sown area for sugar beets, production has declined steadily over the last several years. Last year the sugar beet crop at 14 million tons was down 45% compared to 1993. A similar production to 1994 is expected, a harvest that represents about 25% of the country’s requirements.
The outlook for future food production is unpromising. High inflation and a dramatic shift in terms of trade have been unfavorable to farming. This has meant that little new equipment has been purchased and sums set aside by the government to support leasing agricultural machinery have been insufficient. This means that the remaining equipment is worked harder, increasing maintenance problems.
Livestock products
The output of livestock products continues to fall. The Oxford Analytica (an international consulting firm) published the expected 1995 production of livestock products for Russia. “Livestock herds of virtually all types are likely to shrink in 1995. The number of sheep and goats is likely to fall 17% and the number of cattle 13%…This points to continuing declines in meat production estimated to fall 11%, milk output to decline 8% and egg production likely to drop 7%.”
The ultimate problem
Nothing drives nations to aggressive action more quickly than the hunger of her people. Despite her recent setbacks, the vast armaments of Russia are still in reserve, available for the day when God will put hooks in her jaws to draw her south into the Middle East.
The Origin of the Organic World – Part One