In Elpis Israel, page 434, Brother Thomas describes India as the Eastern Tarshish and gives his reasons for doing so.
Some have thought it necessary to review Bro Thomas’ work and his description of India as the Eastern Tarshish was discounted because of India’s break with Britain, its extreme poverty and weakness, its non-aligned position in world affairs, its friendship with Russia and its anti-Israel stance in the United Nations. When Britain (Western Tarshish) a merchant nation, left India, the description of merchants of Tarshish (Ezekiel 38:13) seemed very inappropriate to use in regard to India. Things have been changing quietly but rapidly which reinforce the traditional Christadelphian view of India as the Eastern Tarshish.
A summary of these events is given below:
- India’s economy has been growing steadily for the last four decades and in recent years has averaged a growth of over 6% per year, more than double that of the United States.
- India is making major efforts to acquire foreign technology, and is setting up enterprises in collaboration with foreign firms.
- The Indian economy is modernizing and beginning to capture foreign markets. Indian exports have jumped from US$7.1 billion in 1976 to US$23.5 billion in 1986, including industrial goods, electronic components, machinery etc.
- Indian multi-national companies are spreading.
- It is beginning to be a major supplier of computer software on international markets.
- It has the third largest pool of scientists, engineers and skilled technicians in the world, following the USA and the USSR (therefore greater than Britain). It has an expanding and highly educated middle class of about 100 million people which is larger than the whole population of Britain. They are beginning to make their presence felt and indulge on consumer goods.
- The Armed Forces have 1,120,000 personnel. The army is the world’s fourth largest with 960,000.
- The navy is developing a blue water fleet. In January 1988, the Indians leased Russian nuclear powered submarines.
- It assembles or makes its own aircraft.
- In the early 1970’s it detonated an atom bomb.
- It has developed an intermediate range ballistic missile, the Prithus, which is nuclear capable.
- It is becoming the dominant regional power in the Indian Ocean.
- While India has developed relations with the Russians, she has managed to maintain a reasonable relationship with America.
- India’s treaty with Russia does not imply a subordinate role for India. India has not allowed Russian bases or military advisers on her soil and has not compromised her independence or freedom of action.
- India’s defence policy has changed from the 1950’s from minimal defence preparedness to sufficient defence to limited deterrence.
- 1987/88 Budget allocations for defence were 125,120,000,000 rupees (19.9% of total government expenditure). There are about 9 rupees to an Australian dollar.
- SAARC (the South Asian Association for Regional Co-operation), of which India is the central member may well become a major force in world affairs.
- Rajiv Gandhi has encouraged private investment and importation of foreign technology. This has, in essence, moved India toward the West and to the U.S. for foreign technology.
- From 1979 the U.S. has replaced the USSR as India’s biggest trading partner while between 1981 and 1982 the number of foreign licences granted has increased five times.
- Rajiv Gandhi has reduced personal taxation and developed policies that enabled the middle class to become more consumer oriented.
- India heads into the end of the millennium with brighter prospects than it has ever had before.
The points above are a summary of relevant sections of an article in the Current Affairs Bulletin (CAB) Vol. 64 No. 10, March 1988, with the title: “India: A power on the move”.
The Sydney Morning Herald, 21/5/1988, also has interesting information.
- India has a growing dominance of the Indian Ocean.
- With nuclear submarines, India has assured its naval supremacy in the region.
- India’s potent surface fleet continues to grow. Two small aircraft carriers are in service carrying vertical takeoff and anti-submarine helicopters. They form the core of two battle groups, along with destroyers, frigates and diesel submarines. At least two and possibly four more attack carriers are to be built at India’s Cochin shipyards. If these ships are built, India will become the world’s third ranking carrier power (behind the U.S. and the U.S.S.R.).
- It seems likely that India has decided to become the dominant power over the great ocean that bears its name.
- India increasingly sees herself as a great power.
- India shrugs off the alarm of others and says it is only protecting its extensive maritime trade.
- India’s neighbours fear that she is set on replacing the British Empire as master of the Indian Ocean.
- India has more than 3,000 main battle tanks and 730 combat planes.
- India has just increased its strategic power by acquiring Soviet Bear-F long range naval bombers. These formidable aircraft carry anti-ship cruise missiles and have combat ranges up to 7,200 km.
The “Australian” 11/4/1988 has the following points of interest about the Bear-F (or TU-142):
- The plane can be armed with depth charges and torpedoes and can also be equipped with the Kennel anti-ship missile, a long range projectile that can carry nuclear warheads.
- These planes give India a long range nuclear-strike capability along the entire Indian Ocean rim.
- These TU-142’s would make the US Navy the only force with a greater reconnaissance strength in the ocean.
Very interesting developments are taking place as seen in “The Australian” 7/4/1988.
“The US Secretary of Defence, Mr Frank Carlucci, yesterday held a second day of talks with Indian officials aimed at trying to wean India away from Soviet sources of military supplies.”
The Australian Minister for Defence, Mr Beazely, in discussing India’s naval buildup had the following to say: (The Australian 29/3/88)
“In India’s case the possession of a substantial number of carriers, the possibility of balanced carrier groups and submarines, poses possibilities for extensively increased Indian influence at the major eastern Indian Ocean choke points … There is no other navy growing as rapidly in the Indian Ocean.”
Before Armageddon we would expect to see India break her ties with Russia and redevelop its ties with the English speaking world (the Merchants of Tarshish and the young lions). At the moment India seems to be a staunch ally of the Russians.
What could change this. The following is a possibility. Mr Gorbachev, the Soviet Leader, is wooing the world with his cry for peace. To boost his peacemaker role he has begun to withdraw his troops from Afghanistan. Part of the reason for this is that a Soviet occupation of Afghanistan creates difficulties between China and Russia. Mr Gorbachev wants peace with China so he can devote more resources to restructuring the Soviet economy.
Another obstacle between the Soviets and China is the Soviet backed Vietnamese occupation of Kampuchea.
In “The Australian” 28/4/1988 it is stated that Gorbachev is now urging Vietnam to withdraw from Kampuchea. If this occurs Russia and China may well move toward quite friendly relations.
This must worry India, for India and China have long been military rivals, and it seems likely China would receive Russian backing against India in the event of disputes, China being the world’s third largest military power.
If this occurs, India must look elsewhere for a big friend and the only choice would be the USA. This scenario is supported by the following two extracts:
Newsweek 17/5/1988
“This week, in turn, Pakistan Foreign Minister Zain Noorani plans to visit Moscow as a first step toward forging better relations after the withdrawal .. .
India is increasingly worried that the Soviet pullout will give new life to Moscow’s efforts to improve its ties not only with Pakistan, but China as well .. .
That prospect frightens India, which wants nothing to interfere with its cosy relationship with Moscow.”
C.A.B. March, 1988
“Recent drought in India has caused the agrarian situation to be bleak with the outlook being one of severe scarcity. The consequences are likely to be a severe economic dampening. It is unlikely Russia would be willing to pump up the Indian economy, and the US would be glad (considering its difficulties in Turkey, Spain, Greece and the Philippines) to increase its influence at the expense of the Russians in this vital area which has such a strategic position in relation to the great oil producing areas of the Middle East. Remember, the U.S. now imports 40% of its oil requirements and its stake in the area is increasing.”
From the foregoing points we see the rise of India as a major power in the India Ocean, it’s growth as a merchant nation, its ability to substantially reinforce the King of the South, and its potential alignment with the English speaking world.
Who would have thought this only a few short years ago but those who expected it from Bible prophecy?
Let us take heart. Christ is coming.
The Borders of the Land of Israel