The passing of the old year and the birth of the new involves no real break in the continuity of world affairs, yet it affords the opportunity of taking stock of the position of looking back over the route traversed during the past year and of surveying that which still lies ahead. There can be no doubt that many who perform this exercise at the present time will feel that 1932 has been a year of disappointment, of want and distress ; possibly these will look forward to the new year with hope trusting that 1933 will hold something better in store. But what of ourselves? What of those who are hoping for the early return of the Lord Jesus? Shall we feel disappointed at the events of the past year, or shall we conclude that they have been moving in the right direction and that the realization of our hopes. is manifestly nearer than it was a year ago? Are there any straws which will indicate which way the wind is blowing?
In a short article we can make but an inadequate survey of the year which has just closed. Nevertheless we feel that there are certain trains of events which stand out as being significant when considered in relation to the prophecies concerning the advent of Christ. There have been occurrences which, though possessing no particular significance to the uninitiated, might well be singled out by a Bible student as fulfilments of Prophecy, which would confirm him in his belief that we are. indeed, living in the closing days of the Gentiles. We will, therefore, examine some of the events of 1932 from this point of view, glancing first of all at the sphere of international affairs and then turning our attention to those which more closely concern the country in which we dwell.
“Distress Of Nations”
That there has been “distress of nations” upon the earth during the past year cannot be denied. In fact, the severity of the present trade depression exceeds that of any within living memory, and the phenomenon has been world-wide. The industrial situation definitely worsened during 1932, and the volume of unemployment in civilised countries exceeded all previous records. In this country, the latest unemployment figures available at the time of writing, those of November, show an increase of some 50,000 over those of the preceding month ; and the Minister of Labour has asked Parliament to vote another $18 millions for unemployment insurance. Many “solutions” have been proposed but the governments of the world have been powerless to prevent this deepening of the depression. On every hand, intelligent people are asking whether it will be possible for the present organization of society to survive the rot which has set in. The world of 1932 has resembled a rudderless ship adrift on a stormy sea.
This world-wide “distress of nations” has given rise to a “roaring of the sea and of the billows” for there has been acute unrest all over the civilised world. The unemployed of this country even, stirred up, it is alleged, by communist agitators, participated in a number of “hunger marches” on London, and the metropolis witnessed some very ugly scenes when these unfortunates came into conflict with the police. We have seen acute controversy over the question of the “means test” and, at the risk of incurring a budget deficit, the government has been compelled somewhat to modify the cuts in unemployment benefit made only a few months ago. From other countries of the world comes the same story : unemployment and discontent, with statesmen at their wits’ end to find a solution to the problems which beset them. Truly they have been “in perplexity for the roaring of the sea and the billows”.
War Debts And Reparations
Among the multitude of problems the question of war debts and reparations has been particularly prominent. This legacy of the Great War has contributed not a little to the diseased state of the body politic, and was largely responsible for the crisis in Austria and Germany in July, 1931, the repercussions of which swept this country from the Gold Standard some two months later. Conference after conference failed to dispose of the question, in spite of the fact that some of the best brains in Europe had tackled the task. Early in 1932, it was decided that the statesmen of the countries concerned should meet once again at Lausanne. At the last moment, this conference, which was to have been opened on January 25th, was postponted; for, although the moratorium granted to Germany was extended for a further six months, France stood in the way of a settlement. In the spring, however, a fresh crisis developed in central Europe and the four-power conference which met in London failed to reach an agreement. After a further delay of more than two months, the postponed Lausanne conference eventually took place and reached a provisional solution on July 8th.
There can be no doubt that, in the popular estimation, the Lausanne agreement was in the nature of a triumph for the conferring statesmen. Unfortunately, however, the agreement reached was conditional upon the United States consenting to a cancellation (or at least, a virtual cancellation) of the allied war debts; the European view being that war debts and reparations cannot be regarded as separate issues. Hence, early in December, the British Government addressed a note to the United States, urging that the payment of the installment due on December 15th should be postponed. This appeal was disallowed and Great Britain was forced to pay. Several countries defaulted and M. Herriot’s cabinet, which had recommended that France should pay “with certain reservations”, was defeated in a hostile chamber on December 14th.
At the time of writing, this most difficult problem is still unsolved : the Lausanne agreement has not been ratified, and it seems likely that the world will soon be in no better position than it was before the Hoover moratorium came into operation. It is futile to blame the United States; but the fact remains that, from the human point of view, world recovery is farther off than ever, because our statesmen can find no way of escape from their dilemma.
Disarmament
The efforts recently made in this direction have resulted in utter failure and the nations of the world are still “armed to the teeth, though pacifist to the core”. In glancing at the work of the Disarmament Conference, we will content ourselves with quoting the opinion of its chairman, Mr. Arthur
Henderson, from a speech delivered to the Trades Union Congress on September 8th—i.e., just after the Conference had adjourned. In every country of the world, said Mr. Henderson, public opinion earnestly desires relief from the burden of armaments; yet the Disarmament Conference, after five years’ preparation and five months’ session in Geneva, had reached results which he could only describe as “meagre”. In fact, it did no more than draw up a programme of matters which will be defined more fully and decided finally at its next session—if all goes well.
The conflict of interests between the different countries participating in the Conference, and the old animosity between France and Germany seem to place insuperable obstacles in the way of a solution. The peoples of the world must content themselves with the knowledge that the Conference is to meet again in a few weeks’ time. And so the futile discussions will continue, achieving no object except the one which is so necessary in this “democratic” age : that of throwing dust in the eyes of the public. Of what era could it be said with so great a measure of justice that the nations were crying “Peace” yet preparing for war?
Political Instability
It is hardly necessary to point out that the past year has been a troubled one as far as politics are concerned. We have witnessed hostilities between China and Japan and the futility of the League has again been shown in its handling of the Manchurian problem. Japan was, in our opinion, obviously “in the wrong”, yet the settlement of this question was shelved for a while by the old expedient of appointing a commission of enquiry. And when the commission eventually produced a very able document in the Lytton Report, the League was unable, or unwilling, to put its recommendations into effect ; and early this month came the news that Japan had entered China, taking possession of Shankaikwan. In Europe there has recently been a further manifestation of ill-feeling between Italy and Jugo-Slavia. There is trouble between Persia and this country of another sort.
It is not surprising that governments have been falling in rapid succession in many countries of the world. The Economist urged, some months ago, that only Russia and Italy could be said to have stable governments, and even Mussolini has drastically re-organized his cabinet and dismissed a number of ministers. In Germany, Dr. Bruning Herr von Papen and General von Schleicher have succeeded one another in the office of Chancellor, and it cannot be said that the position of the last is any more stable than that of his predecessors. In America there has been a remarkable swing from Republican to Democrat, not because there is any very vital difference in policy between the two parties, but because, at such times as this, people are prepared to clutch at any straw which offers provisional support. In France, too, there has been a number of changes of government, culminating in the resignation of M. Herriot and the accession to office of M. Boncour, to which we have already referred. There is no need to extend this list of “signs in the sun” ; let us, in conclusion, turn our attention to the country in which we live.
British Imperialism
If we are really living in the closing days of the Gentiles, and if we have interpreted prophecy correctly, we ought, at the present time, to be witnessing a gradual isolation of the British Empire from the rest of the western world; for, in the conflict of the future, the “northern hosts” are to be opposed by Great Britain and “all the young lions thereof”. Is it possible in speaking of the events of the past year, to say that this process of isolation has begun? We believe that this question may be answered in the affirmative, for there has been a definite movement to consolidate the British Commonwealth of Nations into a more united whole; and it is not surprising that this movement has taken place in the economic sphere.
The debacle of the autumn of 1931 led to the election of a National Government in this country, with a majority of almost 500 the largest for many years. It was referred to as a “national” government because it was supposed to represent all shades of political opinion, but the title has additional significance : this government is far more nationalistic in outlook than its predecessor. It is less concerned with the position of the world as a whole, more concerned with the affairs of this particular country than was the Socialist government. And this increased political nationalism is reflected in its economic policy for, after a century of free trade, the country is committed to a policy of “protection”, i.e., an increased measure of economic isolation from the rest of the world.
From March 1st, in spite of the opposition of the free trade members of the cabinet (who afterwards resigned), a ten per cent. tariff was imposed upon all non-British imports, and a blow was thus struck at the export industries of a number of foreign countries. The process was carried a stage further during the summer when the much-discussed Ottawa Conference was held. Full details of the Empire agreements were not published until October 13 when it became clear that, in spite of the extravagant claims which have been made, their contribution to world recovery was meagre in the extreme. We are not, however, concerned here to criticise the Ottawa agreements. Let us merely point our that, although the Conference did nothing to promote the trade of the world as a whole, it has definitely strengthened the ties which bind this country to the dominions albeit at the risk of alienating the sympathies of friendly foreign powers.
This is just the sort of tendency which our study of prophecy has led us to anticipate at the “time of the end”. The “young lions” have been definitely brought into closer relations with the mother country : for economic advantage now supplements the ties of mere sentiment which had apparently been weakening during the past decade. The British Commonwealth of Nations is more nearly a unity than it has been since the War, a result which has, to some extent, been achieved at the expense of other countries.
“Lift Up Your Heads”
We have tried to show that, even although the year 1932 may have produced no strikingly obvious fulfilments of prophecy, there is no reason why the true Christian should lose hope. The fulfilment of prophecy is usually a very gradual process and events have certainly been moving in the right direction. There has been a time of dire trouble for the world, but even this fact should offer grounds for hope to those who are waiting for Christ. On the other hand, it must be pointed out that we have not proved (nor, indeed, is it possible to prove) that the end of this era will come during the present year, or in one or two years’ time. No such definite conclusion is possible. With the Deity “a thousand years are as one day”, so that what is a life-time to us is but a moment in His sight. Let us, however, look forward to the coming year with hope, remembering the admonition of our Lord : “When ye see these things begin to come to pass, then look up, and lift up your heads : for your redemption draweth nigh”.
The Borders of the Land of Israel