Incredible as it may seem, there are sound reasons why we could see the Arab-Israeli discord moving into more accord during 1977. Walter Eytan has written a most informative article in the 3-12-76 issue of the “Israel Digest” headed “FRESH FORECASTS REGARDING THE MIDDLE-EAST”.
He observes “Economic circles in the United States are probably among the best informed in the world when it comes to sensing political trends. . . At least half the Arab countries, we are told, are now out and out capitalist concerns, this includes not only Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and other Gulf states . . . but also those which have become, willy-nilly, dependent on them (in particular, Syria and Egypt) as well as natural ‘conservatives’ such as Jordan”.
Eytan sees this emerging capitalist force as a powerful stimulus towards peace in the Middle-East. Why? Well, the reasoning seems rather convincing. By their very nature, capitalist societies merge and consolidate and build their financial strength together — and recoil from revolutionary movements which threaten them. The whole grouping of Palestinian Liberation Movements, whether moderate or radical, is communist oriented and therefore anti-capitalistic. For years Saudi Arabia has helped finance the P.L.O., but this appears to have been a “buying-off” strategy to ensure it concentrates its energies on anti-Israeli efforts.
The history of the last six years illustrates how much the Arab leaders are bent on keeping the P.L.O. at arm’s length. Starting with Jordan in 1970 and the then astonishing activity by King Hussein, more recently in Kuwait, and now, and most particularly, with Syria in Lebanon in the past year, we have seen Arabas against the P.L.O. It is clear evidence that they are determined to keep revolutionary forces in their place.
Walter Eytan says, “American business circles are theorizing that the wealthier the Arab states become, the less tolerant they will be of the P.L.O. with its dream of revolution, which they know from experience is a more immediate menace to them than it is to Israel. These Arab states, it is said, believe that Israel understands this perfectly, and that, objectively, a common interest is developing between Israel and themselves. They do not, of course, love Israel any more dearly for this, but they have come to ask themselves whether a settlement with Israel has not become a major interest of their own”.
This is all very interesting, but there is another side to the picture. This is supplied by three informative articles by Cameron Forbes in the “Melbourne Age” on January 5th, 6th and 7th, 1977. Forbes is the paper’s European Correspondent and he has just toured the Arab Oil Nations to take a particular look at the impact of the oil wealth and the stability of the Arab governments-and has come up with some thought provoking observations.
Saudi Arabia is the giant with an ocean of 172 billion barrels of oil under the sands and $30 billion pouring into its exchequer each year. But the small adjoining states also have fabulous incomes, for instance, Qatar, with a population of 180,000, has the highest per capita income in the world. These nations are ruled by sheikdoms, in most cases the power is concentrated in the hands of one regal family, there is no pretence at democracy. Take Qatar, 28 years ago it had a population of 30,000, now it is 180,000. The extra population comprises foreigners brought in to develop the oil and build the modern comforts that are the hallmark of a prosperous nation. In a situation like that — how stable is the government? How long before there are demands for a greater share in running the country? What strength is there to resist?
In Saudi Arabia over 1 million outside workers have been brought to turn the country into a modern state. Forbes has much -to say as to how modern or western codes of conduct are being introduced to the scene. By conduct, he means graft, bribery and corruption. Forbes comments, “One man with a close knowledge of Saudi Arabia tells me he has it from an impeccable source that in one project worth hundreds of millions of dollars, a tenderer who quoted much the highest got the contract. The kick-back — commission is the more polite term — to a Saudi Arabian big man was, he said, $70 million. There is also a claim by a foreign diplomat that $200 million of a $800 million order for British Lightning fighters was drained off in commissions”.
The article in which this was quoted was headed “GREED THE PROBLEM FOR THE OIL GIANT”. It quotes a leader Arab as admitting, “There is pretty blatant exploitation of the big contracts — and it is not by the little man who wants to make his first $100,000 it is the big man after his first $100 million”. Forbes says, “foreign observers are worried by the long-term damage that avarice could do to the fabric of the kingdom”. He quotes a key figure in government service as saying, “There is no immediate threat to stability, but in 10 or 15 years . . . ?”
We can imagine the capitalist-minded elite with their concern over investments, power and prosperity, being very circumspect in their “enthusiasm” for another costly and risky war with Israel. The elimination of Israel is alright as an ideal — .but it is not realistic. This is the conclusion of those who are studying. Arab attitudes. Are their conclusions right?
What is interesting is that the power alignments 4nd ambitions of the Arab states fit in well wih prophecy with the exception of Iran (Persia). Libya and Iraq are the only ones giving much heed to Moscow, the rest are pre-occupied with strengthening themselves and remaining independent.
What will cause Iran to join forces with Moscow? Will it be greed? It could be. With fabulous wealthy “little” nations sharing the wealth around the Persian Gulf, the Shah, with his enormous arms build-up, he has the world’s third largest air force, might find it reasonable at some future time to “defend” his neighbors. We must watch, because if he does make such a move, he may well think it prudent to have Russia on his side.
We find it attractive to speculate on the prospects for peace in the Middle-East; a peace which introduces a greater measure of “peace and security” for Israel,. -but a peace which is shattered abruptly by the forces from the north that “think an evil thought”. Are the Commence tators right in their assessment of the future dangers of dissent from the workers in oil rich countries? Forbes said, “A Marxist looking at Saudi Arabia would be delighted. Here is a country importing a proletariat and a bourgeoisie”. We therefore have the prospect of Russia, at some future date, scheming to under mine the oil rich countries from within, and secretly, organising, should opportunity offer, to take control by invasion:
Finally, it is of interest to note that on the maps of the ancient nations, Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf Oil States cover the area marked “Sheba and Dedan”. Doesn’t that give some cause to revise our thinking about the interpretation of Ezekiel ch. 38?
The Borders of the Land of Israel