Signs of the Times

February has been a month of contrasts. At the beginning of — the month, 72 nations gathered in Japan to help celebrate the last Olympic games of the century. Dur­ing the opening ceremonies, 2,000 balloons shaped like doves carrying messages of peace written by the chil­dren of Nagano were released into the air. At the same time, the United States and allied forces were gather­ing in the Persian Gulf to bring Middle East “bad boy,” Saddam Hussein, under control.

Preparing for the unthinkable

It is hard to prepare for the unthinkable – an attack using “unconventional” weapons. An article in the February 8, 1998 Jerusalem Post reported Saddam Hussein has again forced Israelis to think the unthink­able – biological warfare. “Shaken up during the Gulf War seven years ago by threats that he would dispatch chemical weapons on his Scud mis­siles, the public now has some even more horrendous biological weapons to ponder.” The New York Times re­ported, February 8, 1998, “United Nations inspectors have established that Iraq has been engaged in a bio­logical weapons program for at least 20 years, that in the past it has put anthrax spores into bombs and Scud warheads, and that it has also pre­pared another lethal substance called Botulinium toxin.” In theory, one gram of anthrax bacteria alone could kill 10 million people. (Anthrax is a disease caused by the Bacillus anthracis bacterium. Normally found in sheep, cattle and horses, it can be transmitted to humans who come into contact with infected animals or their by-products.)

We are led to believe Saddam Hussein has the weapons and the willpower to launch a missile towards Israel that could potentially cause mass destruction. In biological warfare, missiles explode, releasing a cloud of anthrax spores on the population under attack. If inhaled, between one and six days after inhalation, the spores cause a gradual onset of symptoms such as fatigue, fe­ver, discomfort in the chest, and pos­sibly a dry cough. The victim’s condition can improve for a few hours or days, but then follows sudden dif­ficulty in breathing, profuse sweating, shock and death within 24 to 36 hours.

Massive buildup of forces

The buildup on the other side of the equation is equally formidable. The Allied troops stand ready with four aircraft carriers (three American, one British). At the time of writing, the United States defense secretary, William Cohen, ordered 19 combat planes and 23 support aircraft to the region, bringing the total number of US military aircraft to 370, mostly on board three aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf. In addition, Kuwait has contributed 24,000 troops, Germany, Canada and Great Britain have of­fered manpower and air bases. War could be waged at a moment’s notice.

“I stand foursquare with you in our determination to bring Saddam into line with the agreement he made at the end of the Gulf War,” British Prime Minister Tony Blair told American President Bill Clinton. He said the Iraqi leader has stockpiled enough chemical and biological weapons “to wipe out the world’s population.”

A different time

There are differences between this confrontation and that of seven years ago. In 11991, with a few exceptions, the whole world waged war against Hussein. At that time, Hussein’s troubles came as a result of his country’s invasion and occu­pation of the bordering nation of Kuwait. As a result, Kuwait managed to lobby other Arab nations to aid in their defense, including Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Yemen. Today, things are much different: Saudi Arabia has refused to allow the Americans to use their air bases, as have Bahrain and Yemen.

In addition, in 1991 despite the fact that Iraq launched Scud missiles in the direction of Israel, this small Jewish nation remained steadfast in their resolve not be dragged into the fracas. Today, Israel has made their intentions known loud and clear. “If attacked we will respond!,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was quoted as saying in early February.

Iraq using food money on weapons

Armaments are procured and defenses are built while people continue to starve. Iraqi officials indicate more than half a million children have died since the Gulf War in 1991 for reasons related to sanctions. Yet money continues to be spent on weapons of mass destruction.

February has seen a startling fulfillment of scripture as mankind cries out for peace on one hand and prepares for war on the other. What this world desperately needs is. the King of peace and righteousness. May we be ready for him when he comes.

In May, 1997, Mohammed Khatami was elected president of Iran by a wide margin Khatami, who has been in government for close to a year, campaigned for tolerance and social reform Khatami’s background includes ten years as minister of vari­ous departments prior to becoming the new president.

Since Khatami had been part of several previous governments, he is keenly aware of the feelings of the West toward Iran It therefore came as a surprise on January 7, 1998, Khatami proposed cultural exchanges as a way to end years of mis­trust between Iran and the United States In a warm and conciliatory manner he indicated exchanges were required between professors, schol­ars, authors, journalists and tourists.

Reading a report of this overture in the New York Times, it would ap­pear this nation of 66 million people has finally had a change of heart Is Iran now no longer a threat in the Middle East? This month’s article looks at the new Iran to note its ultimate goals haven’t really changed but the propaganda has been revamped.

The nation

Since the 1979 Islamic Revolu­tion, Iran’s population has doubled from 33 to 66 million people Iran today is young, religious and prosper­ous.

While Iran has a number of po­litical parties, most are not active Only one, Nehzat-Azadi (Liberation Movement of Iran), is officially rec­ognized and allowed to participate m elections The nation is prosperous because of its export earnings from crude petroleum and petroleum prod­ucts It is this dangerous combina­tion of wealth, youth and religious fervor that keeps the West cautious and worried

Into this mix there is now inter­jected this apparent change of heart by the president of Iran – one m which “a thoughtful dialogue” is required so as to minimize the mistrust between the two countries Despite Khatami’s conciliatory remarks, all indications point to the fact Iran is intent on pur­suing domination in the Middle East.

The New York Times reported on January 8, 1998, that Khatami “re­peated Iran’s long-held opposition to the Arab-Israeli peace talks criticizing Washington for allowing foreign policy decisions to be made m Tel Aviv, and branding Israel the terror­ist regime” The New York Times also reported Iran’s spiritual leader, Aya­tollah Ah Khamenei, “made clear in a sermon last Friday that reports of rapprochement with the United States were mere propaganda”

However, it is not Iran’s war of words that has the United States and other Western powers worried, it is the build-up of weapons of mass de­struction.

Continued weapons build up

A research paper published by the Oxford University Press in Novem­ber, 1997 Indicated that despite Iran’s official “declaratory policy that it nei­ther possesses nor needs nuclear, bio­logical and chemical weapons, it has been m the process of procuring all three as well as several other technologies “

Iran is doing this while at the same time being full members of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the Biological Weapons Convention (BWC) and a signatory to the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) which is not yet m force One of the major highlights of the report points out that if Iran was concerned about their imminent danger, they would concentrate on augment-mg their ground forces.

“Perhaps surprisingly, a strong emphasis on the conventional armed forces, particularly ground forces, would be welcome to most observers for a number of reasons First, it would signal that Iran is more inter­ested in Iraq than potential military confrontations with Israel” the report states Ground forces would help greatly should Iraq elect to continue a forgotten ten-year war Instead, the report indicates Iran is building its air and sea forces as a means of concen­trating on a far greater and more per­plexing enemy.

On the naval front the report indicates “Most famously, Iran has bought three Kilo Class submarines from Russia and a variety of anti-ship cruise missiles from China There has been further speculation that Iran might like to buy supersonic, sea-skimming cruise missiles and man-tune strike aircraft from Russia or Ukraine, but the deals are yet to come together”

On the air front the report indi­cates “Iran is suspected of participating in missile development projects for the 1000-km `Tondar 68,’ but the existence of this program can­not be confirmed” Iran is also suspected of importing 1000-km Rodong missiles from North Korea, but pub­lic accounts are consistent with the confirmed imports of the 500-km Scud-C, which cannot reach Israel The additional technological challenges of increasing the range from 500 to 1000 km are considerable.

A perplexing enemy

Although the Oxford University Press report hints at Iran as a poten­tial enemy of Israel, the Bible pro­vides a clear-cut identification upon whom Iran will wage war The prophecies of Ezekiel indicate that during the latter days, Iran will be part of the forces waging war against Is­rael.

It is interesting to note the dis­tance from the western border of Iraq to Israel is 300 km Iran today is pro­curing technology capable of reach­ing a target m excess of this distance Yet at the same tune she is proposing cultural exchanges as a way to end years of mistrust between Iran and the West.

From scripture, we know such mistrust is well founded We con­tinue to watch with fascination as events unfold in these last days May he who has been appointed King of the World come soon to claim his crown.

As a New Year dawns and the next millennium approaches, we wait in hopeful anticipation of Christ’s return We look for the signs that indicate its timing Ezekiel and other prophets indicate certain nations will go against Israel in a final and costly battle This month’s article focuses on nations which will invade the promised land.

Libya

Libya, led by Omar Qaddafi, is a nation that has always been regarded as an enemy of Israel This nation is described in the latter-day prophecies as continuing to be opposed to God’s chosen people Obviously any mili­tary build-up of Libyan forces should be watched closely During the past decade, Libya has been steadfastly working on a major engineering project which, from its inception, has been suspected as being military in nature.

It is called the “Great Man-Made River Project” Libya is officially attempting to make the desert bloom by installing underground pipes, wells and pumping stations The project consists of a series of tunnels some four meters (13 feet) in diameter installed across the nation of Libya But most Middle East experts suspect this massive project is being implemented for reasons other than humanitarian.

The New York Times reported December 2, 1997 “The system of un­derground pipes and reservoirs has some clandestine military purpose The tunnels are large enough to ac­commodate military vehicles, even a rail line When the project is completed, Libya will have more than 2,000 miles of tunnels stretching from Tunisia to Egypt and from the Mediterranean Sea to Chad and the Sudan Every 50 to 60 miles along the pipe­line huge underground storage areas are being constructed These sites made of reinforced concrete, would be suitable for bivouacking troops or storing military supplies, including poison gas”

Jane’s Defence Weekly reports “(Libyan leader) Qaddafi seems to have taken a leaf out of Kim II Sung’s (the late North Korean dictator) book.

and created a potential military arse­nal underground” North Korea has an elaborate underground military system with storage sites and tunnel routes for vehicles and troops.

Probably the most condemning evidence against this project is the fact that after more than a decade of work, almost no irrigation work, such as digging ditches or running pipes from the main line, has been done.

Only time will afford us the op­portunity of knowing whether this massive project will be a factor during the last days

Turkey

The nation of Turkey has long been the wild card of Middle East nations We are specifically told pow­ers from the north will attack Israel during the latter days Once known as Gomer, Turkey is geographically north of the nation of Israel Pioneer writers have always indicated, should present-day Turkey remain intact, she will indeed be part of the forces that attack the Holy Land Yet today, as a member of NATO, this seems highly improbable.

In addition, for the past several months, Turkey has been procuring military equipment from Israel Specifically, Israel is to deliver to Turkey 40 150 km-range air-to-air Popeye I missiles by the end of the year, according to the Turkish Daily News. Sixty additional missiles are expected to be delivered next year as part of a total package estimated to be worth some $100 million As well, Israel and Turkey are co-producing a series of long-range missiles On October 14 it was reported by the Turkish Daily News “While Israeli Army Chief-of-staff Lieut General Amnon Shahak was visiting Turkey yesterday he announced that Turkey and Israel are planning to co-produce 500 km-range Delilah missiles A senior mili­tary official, who spoke to the paper on condition of anonymity, said Tur­key and Israel have been planning to produce long-range missiles due to their concerns over the missile threat from Iran, Iraq and Syria”

Israel is particularly keen to per­suade Turkey to replace its main battle tanks with Israeli-made Merkava 3s. Israel has even offered to allow Ankara to produce the tanks m what would be the first time Israel has allowed another country either to purchase or build its Merkava 3s.

Status of Middle East nations

One thing is certain about the Middle East This part of the world ranks as the leader in military spending A London based think tank said in its annual Military Balance the Middle East and North Africa remain the largest arms market m the world importing 395 percent of global arms sales, for about $15 billion.

Saudi Arabia was the world’s big­gest arms buyer m 1996, with over $9 1 billion worth of purchases — more than three times the amount of second-place Egypt, which bought $2 3 billion worth According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) “Although the Saudi Arabian government has not dis­closed its defense budgets for 1996 and 1997, The Military Balance esti­mates that Saudi Arabia spent over $17 billion on defense in 1996 and 1997 Future outlays are expected to be of the same order,” the report said.

IISS estimates that at $900 mil­lion, Israel spent some 10 percent of its gross domestic product on defense Conversely, Israel was the world’s fifth largest aims supplier, with exports worth $1 3 billion last year, giv­ing it a 3 3 percent share of the glo­bal trade A further note indicates Kuwait imported $1 billion worth of weaponry.

Although it is estimated that Iran spent 94 percent of its GDP on de­fense in 1996, IISS said actual expen­diture was likely to be higher when funding of the defense industry and some military imports are included IISS said Iran’s ground forces did not pose a threat to its neighbors, but its navy, with a sea mine-laying capabil­ity and more than 20 missile-carrying fast patrol boats, could potentially disrupt Gulf shipping.

Iraq has recently shown its true colors again, challenging the world to a game of risk. While a negotiated solution was reached, it only rem-forces the position of believers that Iraq will play a role in the last days against Israel In the midst of the re­cent confrontation, Iraq’s alliance with Russia was prominently noted and Russia became the prime nego­tiator between Iraq and the United Nations.

It is not without significance that sustained military spending in this region (almost 40% of the world’s total spending) coincides with God’s plan for the invasion against Israel. Meanwhile Madeline Albright, U S Secretary of State, continues to pres­sure political parties in this region to make substantive progress toward peace While admirable, we know that these efforts are fruitless and true peace will only come when the “Prince of Peace” is established in Jerusalem We pray earnestly for his soon return.